Knockout II — ground-truth
Stage 2 of the experiment. The group stage is over, so every model now starts from the real FIFA results and the official Round-of-32 draw — identical for all — and predicts only the knockout outcomes. Unlike Stage 1 (each model chained on its own predicted groups), this shared starting point makes the brackets directly comparable, tie by tie.
Group-stage retrospective
How each model's group-stage predictions (Stage 1) held up against the real finished group stage — group winners called and real qualifiers it had advancing. The real outcomes (FIFA) are the same starting point every Stage-2 bracket below is built on.
| Run | Group winners | Qualifiers |
|---|---|---|
| OpenAI · web | 11/12 | 27/32 |
| Gemini · web | 11/12 | 26/32 |
| OpenAI · baseline | 11/12 | 26/32 |
| Gemini · baseline | 11/12 | 26/32 |
| Claude · enriched | 10/12 | 26/32 |
| OpenAI · enriched | 10/12 | 26/32 |
| Gemini · enriched | 10/12 | 26/32 |
| Claude · web | 9/12 | 26/32 |
| Claude · baseline | 9/12 | 26/32 |
Gemini 3.1 Pro (Antigravity CLI, High) · Jun 28, 2026, 22:10 UTC · built on the real FIFA group stage + official Round-of-32 draw
Champion
France
Golden Boot
Kylian Mbappé
France · 7 goals
Third place
Brazil
Brazil 3–2 Spain
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Round of 32
South Africa0
Canada2
Germany3
Paraguay1
Netherlands2
Morocco1
a.e.t.
Brazil3
Japan1
France2
Sweden0
Côte d'Ivoire1
Norway2
Mexico1
Ecuador0
England3
Congo DR0
USA2
Bosnia and Herzegovina0
Belgium2
Senegal1
Portugal1
Croatia1
1–1 (4–3 p)
Spain2
Austria0
Switzerland1
Algeria0
Argentina4
Cabo Verde0
Colombia2
Ghana1
Australia1
Egypt0
a.e.t.
Round of 16
Canada1
Germany2
Netherlands2
Brazil2
2–2 (4–5 p)
France3
Norway1
Mexico1
England2
a.e.t.
USA1
Belgium1
1–1 (5–4 p)
Portugal0
Spain1
Switzerland0
Argentina2
Colombia2
Australia0
Quarter-finals
Germany1
Brazil2
France1
England0
USA1
Spain3
Argentina2
Colombia1
Semi-finals
Brazil1
France2
a.e.t.
Spain0
Argentina1
Final
France2
Argentina1