The prompt
The exact instruction given to Claude, Gemini and OpenAI. Each model returns JSON only, which is pasted into /admin to score the pool. Set "model" to "claude", "gemini" or "openai" per AI.
prediction prompt
You are a quantitative football analyst. Predict ALL 72 group-stage matches of the
2026 FIFA World Cup (hosted by the USA, Canada and Mexico; 48 teams; 12 groups A–L;
played between June 11 and June 27, 2026). Use the OFFICIAL FIFA draw and schedule;
if you have web access, confirm the real groups, fixtures and dates.
For each match, weigh: squad strength and individual quality; FIFA ranking and recent
form (qualifiers + friendlies over the last 12 months); the form of key players in the
2025/26 club season; injuries/suspensions/final-squad cuts; tactical setup and the
manager's tournament record; head-to-head history; venue context (travel, time zones,
ALTITUDE in Mexico City, summer HEAT and HUMIDITY, pitch); home advantage for the
hosts; and market signals (betting odds).
For each match, derive the probability of a home win / draw / away win (summing to
100%) and the most likely scoreline. Be calibrated: prefer honest accuracy over false
confidence.
RESPOND WITH VALID JSON ONLY, no text before or after, in exactly this shape:
{
"model": "claude",
"predictions": [
{
"group": "A",
"teamA": "<home team>",
"teamB": "<away team>",
"scoreA": <int>,
"scoreB": <int>,
"probWinA": <0-100>,
"probDraw": <0-100>,
"probWinB": <0-100>,
"confidence": "high|medium|low",
"reasoning": "<one sentence with the main signal>"
}
]
}
Include all 72 group-stage matches. Do not invent teams, matches or statistics.Full methodology, in the open
Every prompt variant, the standardized context dataset, the runner scripts and every raw model run are versioned in the public repository:
- docs/PROMPT.md — Group stage (web arm)
- docs/PROMPT-ENRICHED.md — API arms (baseline + enriched)
- docs/PROMPT-KNOCKOUT.md — Knockout bracket
Why these signals
The prompt asks each model to reason from squad strength, recent form, availability, tactics, head-to-head, venue context (altitude, heat, travel), host advantage, and market odds — then commit to a scoreline and calibrated win/draw/loss probabilities. The Brier score on the leaderboard rewards honest probabilities, not just correct calls.
Model runs
The exact JSON each model returned for the prompt above — the output that feeds /admin → Import. Copy a run to re-import it, or expand to inspect all 72 predictions.
GeminiWebGoogle Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (Gemini CLI, OAuth)Jun 10, 2026, 21:14 UTC · 72 matches
Show JSON output
{
"model": "gemini",
"condition": "web",
"predictions": [
{
"group": "A",
"teamA": "Mexico",
"teamB": "South Africa",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 65,
"probDraw": 22,
"probWinB": 13,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Home advantage and altitude in Mexico strongly favor the hosts against a weaker CAF opponent."
},
{
"group": "A",
"teamA": "South Korea",
"teamB": "Czech Republic",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 33,
"probDraw": 32,
"probWinB": 35,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "A tight tactical matchup between UEFA structured play and South Korea's high-intensity transitions."
},
{
"group": "A",
"teamA": "Czech Republic",
"teamB": "South Africa",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 55,
"probDraw": 25,
"probWinB": 20,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Czech Republic's superior squad depth and tactical discipline should overpower South Africa."
},
{
"group": "A",
"teamA": "Mexico",
"teamB": "South Korea",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 50,
"probDraw": 28,
"probWinB": 22,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Mexico's home advantage gives them the edge, though South Korea's attacking threat poses risks."
},
{
"group": "A",
"teamA": "Czech Republic",
"teamB": "Mexico",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 30,
"probDraw": 30,
"probWinB": 40,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "The Czechs will look to neutralize Mexico's home crowd with a solid defensive block, likely resulting in a draw."
},
{
"group": "A",
"teamA": "South Africa",
"teamB": "South Korea",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 20,
"probDraw": 25,
"probWinB": 55,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "South Korea's individual quality and European experience are too much for South Africa's defense."
},
{
"group": "B",
"teamA": "Canada",
"teamB": "Bosnia & Herzegovina",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 55,
"probDraw": 25,
"probWinB": 20,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Canada's home advantage and pace in attack (Davies, David) will overwhelm a rebuilding Bosnian defense."
},
{
"group": "B",
"teamA": "Qatar",
"teamB": "Switzerland",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 10,
"probDraw": 20,
"probWinB": 70,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Switzerland's superior midfield control and tournament experience will comfortably handle the Asian champions."
},
{
"group": "B",
"teamA": "Switzerland",
"teamB": "Bosnia & Herzegovina",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 65,
"probDraw": 20,
"probWinB": 15,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Switzerland's structured defense and consistent European pedigree give them a clear edge over an inconsistent Bosnia."
},
{
"group": "B",
"teamA": "Canada",
"teamB": "Qatar",
"scoreA": 3,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 60,
"probDraw": 25,
"probWinB": 15,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Canada's physical intensity and direct counter-attacks will exploit Qatar's defensive frailties seen against higher-paced opposition."
},
{
"group": "B",
"teamA": "Switzerland",
"teamB": "Canada",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 40,
"probDraw": 35,
"probWinB": 25,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "A tight tactical battle between Switzerland's possession game and Canada's explosive transitions, likely ending in a draw."
},
{
"group": "B",
"teamA": "Bosnia & Herzegovina",
"teamB": "Qatar",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 40,
"probDraw": 35,
"probWinB": 25,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Both teams will struggle to break down the other, with Bosnia's physicality neutralized by Qatar's conservative setup."
},
{
"group": "C",
"teamA": "Brazil",
"teamB": "Morocco",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 60,
"probDraw": 25,
"probWinB": 15,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Brazil's superior attacking depth edges out Morocco's resilient defensive setup, though it will be tightly contested."
},
{
"group": "C",
"teamA": "Haiti",
"teamB": "Scotland",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 10,
"probDraw": 20,
"probWinB": 70,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Scotland's physical midfield and European tactical discipline should easily overwhelm the CONCACAF underdogs."
},
{
"group": "C",
"teamA": "Scotland",
"teamB": "Morocco",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 30,
"probDraw": 35,
"probWinB": 35,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "A very even match where Scotland's tenacity matches Morocco's technical midfield, resulting in a likely draw."
},
{
"group": "C",
"teamA": "Brazil",
"teamB": "Haiti",
"scoreA": 4,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 90,
"probDraw": 7,
"probWinB": 3,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Brazil's world-class forwards face a porous defense, creating a high probability for a comfortable, multi-goal victory."
},
{
"group": "C",
"teamA": "Scotland",
"teamB": "Brazil",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 15,
"probDraw": 20,
"probWinB": 65,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "While Scotland may defend deep, Brazil's individual brilliance will eventually break down the low block."
},
{
"group": "C",
"teamA": "Morocco",
"teamB": "Haiti",
"scoreA": 3,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 80,
"probDraw": 15,
"probWinB": 5,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Morocco's dynamic wingers will exploit the spaces left by Haiti, ensuring a dominant win for the Atlas Lions."
},
{
"group": "D",
"teamA": "USA",
"teamB": "Paraguay",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 45,
"probDraw": 30,
"probWinB": 25,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "USA benefits from home-field advantage and a dynamic young core, though Paraguay remains defensively resilient."
},
{
"group": "D",
"teamA": "Australia",
"teamB": "Turkey",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 20,
"probDraw": 25,
"probWinB": 55,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Turkey's technical superiority in midfield and attack will likely overwhelm Australia's disciplined but rigid setup."
},
{
"group": "D",
"teamA": "USA",
"teamB": "Australia",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 55,
"probDraw": 25,
"probWinB": 20,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "With strong home support, the USA's pace and fluidity in wide areas should exploit Australia's defensive gaps."
},
{
"group": "D",
"teamA": "Turkey",
"teamB": "Paraguay",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 35,
"probDraw": 40,
"probWinB": 25,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "A clash of styles where Turkey's creative possession meets Paraguay's physical low block, likely resulting in a hard-fought stalemate."
},
{
"group": "D",
"teamA": "Turkey",
"teamB": "USA",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 35,
"probDraw": 35,
"probWinB": 30,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "An evenly matched contest between Turkey's technical quality and the USA's athleticism and home-crowd energy."
},
{
"group": "D",
"teamA": "Paraguay",
"teamB": "Australia",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 45,
"probDraw": 35,
"probWinB": 20,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Paraguay's edge in individual quality and CONMEBOL qualifying grit gives them a narrow advantage in a tight, low-scoring game."
},
{
"group": "E",
"teamA": "Germany",
"teamB": "Curaçao",
"scoreA": 4,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 90,
"probDraw": 8,
"probWinB": 2,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Germany's overwhelming squad depth, tactical maturity, and world-class midfield will easily dismantle Curaçao's inexperienced defense."
},
{
"group": "E",
"teamA": "Ivory Coast",
"teamB": "Ecuador",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 35,
"probDraw": 35,
"probWinB": 30,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "A highly physical and balanced encounter, with Ivory Coast's attacking flair neutralized by Ecuador's structured defense."
},
{
"group": "E",
"teamA": "Germany",
"teamB": "Ivory Coast",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 65,
"probDraw": 20,
"probWinB": 15,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Germany's structured possession play ultimately breaks down a resilient Ivorian side that will pose significant counter-attacking threats."
},
{
"group": "E",
"teamA": "Ecuador",
"teamB": "Curaçao",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 80,
"probDraw": 15,
"probWinB": 5,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Ecuador's high-intensity pressing and physical dominance in midfield will comfortably suffocate Curaçao's limited attacking options."
},
{
"group": "E",
"teamA": "Curaçao",
"teamB": "Ivory Coast",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 3,
"probWinA": 5,
"probDraw": 15,
"probWinB": 80,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Ivory Coast's superior athleticism and top-tier attacking talent will outclass Curaçao across the pitch."
},
{
"group": "E",
"teamA": "Ecuador",
"teamB": "Germany",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 20,
"probDraw": 25,
"probWinB": 55,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Germany's clinical finishing and disciplined transitions give them a slight edge over a tough, hard-tackling Ecuadorian squad."
},
{
"group": "F",
"teamA": "Netherlands",
"teamB": "Japan",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 55,
"probDraw": 25,
"probWinB": 20,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Netherlands' superior individual quality should overcome Japan's organized pressing, though it will be tight."
},
{
"group": "F",
"teamA": "Sweden",
"teamB": "Tunisia",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 45,
"probDraw": 35,
"probWinB": 20,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Sweden's attacking firepower with Isak and Gyökeres gives them the edge against a resilient Tunisian defense."
},
{
"group": "F",
"teamA": "Netherlands",
"teamB": "Sweden",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 50,
"probDraw": 30,
"probWinB": 20,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "The Dutch midfield control and defensive solidity will likely neutralize Sweden's direct attacking threats."
},
{
"group": "F",
"teamA": "Tunisia",
"teamB": "Japan",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 20,
"probDraw": 30,
"probWinB": 50,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Japan's technical midfield and pace out wide should eventually break down Tunisia's low block."
},
{
"group": "F",
"teamA": "Japan",
"teamB": "Sweden",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 35,
"probDraw": 30,
"probWinB": 35,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "A tactical stalemate between Japan's organized transition play and Sweden's physical attacking threats."
},
{
"group": "F",
"teamA": "Tunisia",
"teamB": "Netherlands",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 3,
"probWinA": 10,
"probDraw": 15,
"probWinB": 75,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "The Netherlands possess too much attacking variety and squad depth for Tunisia to contain over 90 minutes."
},
{
"group": "G",
"teamA": "Belgium",
"teamB": "Egypt",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 65,
"probDraw": 22,
"probWinB": 13,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Belgium's superior midfield control and attacking depth outmatch Egypt's reliance on counter-attacks."
},
{
"group": "G",
"teamA": "Iran",
"teamB": "New Zealand",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 55,
"probDraw": 28,
"probWinB": 17,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Iran's defensive solidity and tournament experience give them a narrow edge over a physical New Zealand side."
},
{
"group": "G",
"teamA": "Belgium",
"teamB": "Iran",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 70,
"probDraw": 20,
"probWinB": 10,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Belgium's sustained attacking pressure will eventually break down Iran's low block."
},
{
"group": "G",
"teamA": "New Zealand",
"teamB": "Egypt",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 20,
"probDraw": 25,
"probWinB": 55,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Egypt's pace in transition will exploit New Zealand's defensive vulnerabilities."
},
{
"group": "G",
"teamA": "Egypt",
"teamB": "Iran",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 38,
"probDraw": 35,
"probWinB": 27,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "A tight, tactical encounter between two evenly matched teams prioritizing defensive organization."
},
{
"group": "G",
"teamA": "New Zealand",
"teamB": "Belgium",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 3,
"probWinA": 5,
"probDraw": 15,
"probWinB": 80,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "A significant mismatch in individual quality and tactical sophistication heavily favors Belgium."
},
{
"group": "H",
"teamA": "Spain",
"teamB": "Cape Verde",
"scoreA": 3,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 85,
"probDraw": 10,
"probWinB": 5,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Spain's elite midfield possession will systematically dismantle Cape Verde's defensive block."
},
{
"group": "H",
"teamA": "Saudi Arabia",
"teamB": "Uruguay",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 10,
"probDraw": 20,
"probWinB": 70,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Uruguay's relentless high press under Marcelo Bielsa will force critical errors from the Saudi backline."
},
{
"group": "H",
"teamA": "Spain",
"teamB": "Saudi Arabia",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 80,
"probDraw": 15,
"probWinB": 5,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Saudi Arabia's pragmatic defensive setup under Donis will limit the scoreline, but Spain's quality will eventually break through."
},
{
"group": "H",
"teamA": "Uruguay",
"teamB": "Cape Verde",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 75,
"probDraw": 15,
"probWinB": 10,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Uruguay's verticality and attacking firepower will be too much for Cape Verde to contain over 90 minutes."
},
{
"group": "H",
"teamA": "Cape Verde",
"teamB": "Saudi Arabia",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 35,
"probDraw": 35,
"probWinB": 30,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "A tense, evenly matched tactical battle as both teams prioritize not losing in pursuit of third place."
},
{
"group": "H",
"teamA": "Uruguay",
"teamB": "Spain",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 30,
"probDraw": 35,
"probWinB": 35,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "A classic clash of styles ending in a stalemate, with Uruguay's disruptive pressing neutralizing Spain's possession dominance."
},
{
"group": "I",
"teamA": "France",
"teamB": "Senegal",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 65,
"probDraw": 25,
"probWinB": 10,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "France's superior depth and attacking prowess, led by Mbappe, give them a clear edge over Senegal."
},
{
"group": "I",
"teamA": "Iraq",
"teamB": "Norway",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 10,
"probDraw": 20,
"probWinB": 70,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Haaland's world-class finishing should be too much for Iraq's defense to handle."
},
{
"group": "I",
"teamA": "France",
"teamB": "Iraq",
"scoreA": 3,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 85,
"probDraw": 10,
"probWinB": 5,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "A significant mismatch in quality where France is expected to dominate possession and chances."
},
{
"group": "I",
"teamA": "Norway",
"teamB": "Senegal",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 40,
"probDraw": 35,
"probWinB": 25,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "A tightly contested matchup balancing Norway's attacking stars against Senegal's defensive resilience and physicality."
},
{
"group": "I",
"teamA": "Norway",
"teamB": "France",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 20,
"probDraw": 25,
"probWinB": 55,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "While Norway can score, France's overall squad depth and tactical versatility make them the favorites."
},
{
"group": "I",
"teamA": "Senegal",
"teamB": "Iraq",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 65,
"probDraw": 25,
"probWinB": 10,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Senegal's greater international experience and athleticism provide a clear advantage over Iraq."
},
{
"group": "J",
"teamA": "Argentina",
"teamB": "Algeria",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 70,
"probDraw": 20,
"probWinB": 10,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Argentina's midfield dominance and elite defensive organization will stifle Algeria's transition threats."
},
{
"group": "J",
"teamA": "Austria",
"teamB": "Jordan",
"scoreA": 3,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 75,
"probDraw": 18,
"probWinB": 7,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Rangnick's relentless pressing system should force multiple turnovers against a Jordanian side unaccustomed to this intensity."
},
{
"group": "J",
"teamA": "Argentina",
"teamB": "Austria",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 55,
"probDraw": 30,
"probWinB": 15,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Austria's physical pressing will disrupt Argentina at times, but the individual brilliance of the reigning champions will break the deadlock."
},
{
"group": "J",
"teamA": "Jordan",
"teamB": "Algeria",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 20,
"probDraw": 30,
"probWinB": 50,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Algeria's superior attacking depth and European-pedigree forwards give them the edge in a tightly contested fixture against Jordan's counter-attacks."
},
{
"group": "J",
"teamA": "Algeria",
"teamB": "Austria",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 25,
"probDraw": 30,
"probWinB": 45,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Austria's structural discipline and cohesive midfield engine provide a slight advantage over a sometimes defensively vulnerable Algerian side."
},
{
"group": "J",
"teamA": "Jordan",
"teamB": "Argentina",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 3,
"probWinA": 5,
"probDraw": 15,
"probWinB": 80,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Even with potential squad rotation for the final match, Argentina's overwhelming depth and technical superiority will comfortably dispatch Jordan's low block."
},
{
"group": "K",
"teamA": "Portugal",
"teamB": "DR Congo",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 75,
"probDraw": 18,
"probWinB": 7,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Portugal's overwhelming quality in midfield and attack should easily break down DR Congo's defense."
},
{
"group": "K",
"teamA": "Uzbekistan",
"teamB": "Colombia",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 12,
"probDraw": 23,
"probWinB": 65,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Colombia's tactical discipline and superior attacking options will be too much for debutants Uzbekistan."
},
{
"group": "K",
"teamA": "Portugal",
"teamB": "Uzbekistan",
"scoreA": 3,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 82,
"probDraw": 13,
"probWinB": 5,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Portugal's technical superiority and depth will control the game against a defensive Uzbekistan side."
},
{
"group": "K",
"teamA": "Colombia",
"teamB": "DR Congo",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 60,
"probDraw": 25,
"probWinB": 15,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "A competitive and physical match, but Colombia's edge in individual brilliance secures the win."
},
{
"group": "K",
"teamA": "Colombia",
"teamB": "Portugal",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 25,
"probDraw": 35,
"probWinB": 40,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Both teams will likely have secured qualification, leading to a balanced and cautious draw."
},
{
"group": "K",
"teamA": "DR Congo",
"teamB": "Uzbekistan",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 38,
"probDraw": 32,
"probWinB": 30,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "An evenly matched contest where both teams will push for a win, likely resulting in a stalemate."
},
{
"group": "L",
"teamA": "England",
"teamB": "Croatia",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 55,
"probDraw": 28,
"probWinB": 17,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "England's superior attacking depth led by Bellingham and Kane overrides Croatia's controlled midfield."
},
{
"group": "L",
"teamA": "Ghana",
"teamB": "Panama",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 50,
"probDraw": 30,
"probWinB": 20,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Ghana's top-tier European experience, particularly with Kudus, gives them a slight edge over an organized Panama side."
},
{
"group": "L",
"teamA": "England",
"teamB": "Ghana",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 65,
"probDraw": 22,
"probWinB": 13,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "England's disciplined defense and clinical finishing should comfortably dispatch a talented but inconsistent Ghanaian team."
},
{
"group": "L",
"teamA": "Panama",
"teamB": "Croatia",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 15,
"probDraw": 25,
"probWinB": 60,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Croatia's midfield control and tournament pedigree will systematically break down Panama's defensive setup."
},
{
"group": "L",
"teamA": "Panama",
"teamB": "England",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 3,
"probWinA": 10,
"probDraw": 15,
"probWinB": 75,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "A significant mismatch in overall squad quality points to a comfortable multi-goal victory for England."
},
{
"group": "L",
"teamA": "Croatia",
"teamB": "Ghana",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 48,
"probDraw": 30,
"probWinB": 22,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Croatia's tactical maturity and set-piece efficiency should secure a narrow victory in a highly competitive fixture."
}
]
}ClaudeWebClaude Opus 4.8Jun 09, 2026, 21:22 UTC · 72 matches
Show JSON output
{
"model": "claude",
"condition": "web",
"predictions": [
{
"group": "A",
"teamA": "Mexico",
"teamB": "South Africa",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 62,
"probDraw": 24,
"probWinB": 14,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Host opener at Mexico City altitude tilts it strongly to Mexico."
},
{
"group": "A",
"teamA": "South Korea",
"teamB": "Czech Republic",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 38,
"probDraw": 32,
"probWinB": 30,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Two similar mid-tier sides; Son's edge is marginal."
},
{
"group": "A",
"teamA": "Czech Republic",
"teamB": "South Africa",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 50,
"probDraw": 27,
"probWinB": 23,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Czech squad depth outweighs South Africa's pace."
},
{
"group": "A",
"teamA": "Mexico",
"teamB": "South Korea",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 48,
"probDraw": 28,
"probWinB": 24,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Mexico's altitude and crowd offset Korea's quality."
},
{
"group": "A",
"teamA": "Czech Republic",
"teamB": "Mexico",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 28,
"probDraw": 27,
"probWinB": 45,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Mexico City venue makes Mexico the de-facto home side."
},
{
"group": "A",
"teamA": "South Africa",
"teamB": "South Korea",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 30,
"probDraw": 28,
"probWinB": 42,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Korea's European-based core has the higher ceiling."
},
{
"group": "B",
"teamA": "Canada",
"teamB": "Bosnia & Herzegovina",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 45,
"probDraw": 28,
"probWinB": 27,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Home support nudges co-hosts Canada ahead of a streaky Bosnia."
},
{
"group": "B",
"teamA": "Qatar",
"teamB": "Switzerland",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 18,
"probDraw": 22,
"probWinB": 60,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Switzerland's organisation and individual quality clearly outclass Qatar."
},
{
"group": "B",
"teamA": "Switzerland",
"teamB": "Bosnia & Herzegovina",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 52,
"probDraw": 26,
"probWinB": 22,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Swiss tournament reliability edges a talented but fragile Bosnia."
},
{
"group": "B",
"teamA": "Canada",
"teamB": "Qatar",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 58,
"probDraw": 24,
"probWinB": 18,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Canada's pace and home crowd should break Qatar down."
},
{
"group": "B",
"teamA": "Switzerland",
"teamB": "Canada",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 38,
"probDraw": 30,
"probWinB": 32,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Swiss class versus Canadian home advantage in Vancouver — a coin-flip."
},
{
"group": "B",
"teamA": "Bosnia & Herzegovina",
"teamB": "Qatar",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 52,
"probDraw": 25,
"probWinB": 23,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Bosnia's attacking threat carries a must-win final group game."
},
{
"group": "C",
"teamA": "Brazil",
"teamB": "Morocco",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 52,
"probDraw": 26,
"probWinB": 22,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Brazil favoured but 2022 semi-finalists Morocco keep it close."
},
{
"group": "C",
"teamA": "Haiti",
"teamB": "Scotland",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 22,
"probDraw": 26,
"probWinB": 52,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Scotland's European pedigree and set-pieces outgun debutants Haiti."
},
{
"group": "C",
"teamA": "Scotland",
"teamB": "Morocco",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 28,
"probDraw": 28,
"probWinB": 44,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Morocco's deeper, in-form squad should prevail."
},
{
"group": "C",
"teamA": "Brazil",
"teamB": "Haiti",
"scoreA": 3,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 82,
"probDraw": 12,
"probWinB": 6,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Clear gulf in individual quality favours Brazil heavily."
},
{
"group": "C",
"teamA": "Scotland",
"teamB": "Brazil",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 16,
"probDraw": 22,
"probWinB": 62,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Brazil's attacking talent overwhelms a defensive Scotland."
},
{
"group": "C",
"teamA": "Morocco",
"teamB": "Haiti",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 70,
"probDraw": 20,
"probWinB": 10,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Morocco's structure and quality see off Haiti comfortably."
},
{
"group": "D",
"teamA": "USA",
"teamB": "Paraguay",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 50,
"probDraw": 27,
"probWinB": 23,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Host energy and a young US core edge a gritty Paraguay."
},
{
"group": "D",
"teamA": "Australia",
"teamB": "Turkey",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 30,
"probDraw": 28,
"probWinB": 42,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Turkey's European-based talent has the higher ceiling."
},
{
"group": "D",
"teamA": "USA",
"teamB": "Australia",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 52,
"probDraw": 26,
"probWinB": 22,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Home advantage and pace favour the USA over a physical Australia."
},
{
"group": "D",
"teamA": "Turkey",
"teamB": "Paraguay",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 50,
"probDraw": 27,
"probWinB": 23,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Turkey's attacking quality outweighs Paraguay's defensive setup."
},
{
"group": "D",
"teamA": "Turkey",
"teamB": "USA",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 35,
"probDraw": 30,
"probWinB": 35,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Turkey's quality versus US home crowd makes this a toss-up."
},
{
"group": "D",
"teamA": "Paraguay",
"teamB": "Australia",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 36,
"probDraw": 32,
"probWinB": 32,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Two well-matched, defensively sound sides likely to share points."
},
{
"group": "E",
"teamA": "Germany",
"teamB": "Curaçao",
"scoreA": 3,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 84,
"probDraw": 11,
"probWinB": 5,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Germany's depth dwarfs Curaçao's first-ever World Cup squad."
},
{
"group": "E",
"teamA": "Ivory Coast",
"teamB": "Ecuador",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 35,
"probDraw": 33,
"probWinB": 32,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Ecuador's stingy defence cancels Ivory Coast's attacking edge."
},
{
"group": "E",
"teamA": "Germany",
"teamB": "Ivory Coast",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 60,
"probDraw": 24,
"probWinB": 16,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Germany's control should overcome Ivory Coast's athleticism."
},
{
"group": "E",
"teamA": "Ecuador",
"teamB": "Curaçao",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 68,
"probDraw": 22,
"probWinB": 10,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Ecuador's physical, organised side is a clear step up on Curaçao."
},
{
"group": "E",
"teamA": "Curaçao",
"teamB": "Ivory Coast",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 18,
"probDraw": 25,
"probWinB": 57,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Ivory Coast's quality should be too much for Curaçao."
},
{
"group": "E",
"teamA": "Ecuador",
"teamB": "Germany",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 26,
"probDraw": 28,
"probWinB": 46,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Germany's superior squad edges a resilient Ecuador."
},
{
"group": "F",
"teamA": "Netherlands",
"teamB": "Japan",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 52,
"probDraw": 26,
"probWinB": 22,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Dutch quality favoured, but Japan's press makes it competitive."
},
{
"group": "F",
"teamA": "Sweden",
"teamB": "Tunisia",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 38,
"probDraw": 30,
"probWinB": 32,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Sweden's attack against Tunisia's discipline points to a tight game."
},
{
"group": "F",
"teamA": "Netherlands",
"teamB": "Sweden",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 60,
"probDraw": 24,
"probWinB": 16,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Netherlands' all-round quality outweighs Sweden's."
},
{
"group": "F",
"teamA": "Tunisia",
"teamB": "Japan",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 24,
"probDraw": 28,
"probWinB": 48,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Japan's technical edge breaks down a compact Tunisia."
},
{
"group": "F",
"teamA": "Japan",
"teamB": "Sweden",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 40,
"probDraw": 30,
"probWinB": 30,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Japan's tempo against Sweden's physicality is finely balanced."
},
{
"group": "F",
"teamA": "Tunisia",
"teamB": "Netherlands",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 16,
"probDraw": 24,
"probWinB": 60,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Netherlands' class should comfortably overcome Tunisia."
},
{
"group": "G",
"teamA": "Belgium",
"teamB": "Egypt",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 56,
"probDraw": 25,
"probWinB": 19,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Belgium's golden-gen depth edges a Salah-led Egypt."
},
{
"group": "G",
"teamA": "Iran",
"teamB": "New Zealand",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 58,
"probDraw": 26,
"probWinB": 16,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Iran's experience and structure outclass New Zealand."
},
{
"group": "G",
"teamA": "Belgium",
"teamB": "Iran",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 55,
"probDraw": 27,
"probWinB": 18,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Belgium favoured but Iran's low block keeps the margin slim."
},
{
"group": "G",
"teamA": "New Zealand",
"teamB": "Egypt",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 22,
"probDraw": 28,
"probWinB": 50,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Egypt's quality, led by Salah, is a level above New Zealand."
},
{
"group": "G",
"teamA": "Egypt",
"teamB": "Iran",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 34,
"probDraw": 34,
"probWinB": 32,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Two cagey, well-drilled sides likely cancel each other out."
},
{
"group": "G",
"teamA": "New Zealand",
"teamB": "Belgium",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 12,
"probDraw": 22,
"probWinB": 66,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Belgium's talent gap over New Zealand is decisive."
},
{
"group": "H",
"teamA": "Spain",
"teamB": "Cape Verde",
"scoreA": 3,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 82,
"probDraw": 13,
"probWinB": 5,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "European champions Spain far outclass debutants Cape Verde."
},
{
"group": "H",
"teamA": "Saudi Arabia",
"teamB": "Uruguay",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 22,
"probDraw": 26,
"probWinB": 52,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Uruguay's experienced core has the clear edge."
},
{
"group": "H",
"teamA": "Spain",
"teamB": "Saudi Arabia",
"scoreA": 3,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 80,
"probDraw": 14,
"probWinB": 6,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Spain's possession game should dismantle Saudi Arabia."
},
{
"group": "H",
"teamA": "Uruguay",
"teamB": "Cape Verde",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 68,
"probDraw": 22,
"probWinB": 10,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Uruguay's pedigree is well above Cape Verde's."
},
{
"group": "H",
"teamA": "Cape Verde",
"teamB": "Saudi Arabia",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 36,
"probDraw": 32,
"probWinB": 32,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Evenly matched outsiders fighting for a likely dead-rubber point."
},
{
"group": "H",
"teamA": "Uruguay",
"teamB": "Spain",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 28,
"probDraw": 28,
"probWinB": 44,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Spain's midfield control edges a physical Uruguay."
},
{
"group": "I",
"teamA": "France",
"teamB": "Senegal",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 54,
"probDraw": 25,
"probWinB": 21,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "France favoured, but Senegal's athleticism makes it a test."
},
{
"group": "I",
"teamA": "Iraq",
"teamB": "Norway",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 22,
"probDraw": 26,
"probWinB": 52,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Haaland-led Norway have far more firepower than Iraq."
},
{
"group": "I",
"teamA": "France",
"teamB": "Iraq",
"scoreA": 3,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 80,
"probDraw": 14,
"probWinB": 6,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "France's depth overwhelms Iraq."
},
{
"group": "I",
"teamA": "Norway",
"teamB": "Senegal",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 36,
"probDraw": 30,
"probWinB": 34,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Norway's attack versus Senegal's power is a genuine coin-flip."
},
{
"group": "I",
"teamA": "Norway",
"teamB": "France",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 30,
"probDraw": 28,
"probWinB": 42,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "France's balance edges Norway despite Haaland's threat."
},
{
"group": "I",
"teamA": "Senegal",
"teamB": "Iraq",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 68,
"probDraw": 22,
"probWinB": 10,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Senegal's quality and power should see off Iraq."
},
{
"group": "J",
"teamA": "Argentina",
"teamB": "Algeria",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 64,
"probDraw": 23,
"probWinB": 13,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Holders Argentina have the class to control Algeria."
},
{
"group": "J",
"teamA": "Austria",
"teamB": "Jordan",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 62,
"probDraw": 24,
"probWinB": 14,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Austria's European quality outranks debutants Jordan."
},
{
"group": "J",
"teamA": "Argentina",
"teamB": "Austria",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 60,
"probDraw": 25,
"probWinB": 15,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Argentina favoured but a well-drilled Austria can score."
},
{
"group": "J",
"teamA": "Jordan",
"teamB": "Algeria",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 28,
"probDraw": 32,
"probWinB": 40,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Algeria's individual quality narrowly favours them."
},
{
"group": "J",
"teamA": "Algeria",
"teamB": "Austria",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 36,
"probDraw": 32,
"probWinB": 32,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Two evenly matched sides likely to split the points."
},
{
"group": "J",
"teamA": "Jordan",
"teamB": "Argentina",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 3,
"probWinA": 8,
"probDraw": 16,
"probWinB": 76,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Argentina's quality gap over Jordan is overwhelming."
},
{
"group": "K",
"teamA": "Portugal",
"teamB": "DR Congo",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 64,
"probDraw": 23,
"probWinB": 13,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Portugal's depth outclasses an athletic DR Congo."
},
{
"group": "K",
"teamA": "Uzbekistan",
"teamB": "Colombia",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 24,
"probDraw": 28,
"probWinB": 48,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Colombia's South American pedigree edges debutants Uzbekistan."
},
{
"group": "K",
"teamA": "Portugal",
"teamB": "Uzbekistan",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 68,
"probDraw": 22,
"probWinB": 10,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Portugal's quality should comfortably see off Uzbekistan."
},
{
"group": "K",
"teamA": "Colombia",
"teamB": "DR Congo",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 54,
"probDraw": 26,
"probWinB": 20,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Colombia's cohesion edges a physical DR Congo."
},
{
"group": "K",
"teamA": "Colombia",
"teamB": "Portugal",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 32,
"probDraw": 30,
"probWinB": 38,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Two strong sides in a likely group-deciding draw."
},
{
"group": "K",
"teamA": "DR Congo",
"teamB": "Uzbekistan",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 36,
"probDraw": 32,
"probWinB": 32,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Evenly matched outsiders likely to share the spoils."
},
{
"group": "L",
"teamA": "England",
"teamB": "Croatia",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 52,
"probDraw": 27,
"probWinB": 21,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "England's depth edges an ageing but wily Croatia."
},
{
"group": "L",
"teamA": "Ghana",
"teamB": "Panama",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 50,
"probDraw": 28,
"probWinB": 22,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Ghana's athleticism narrowly favours them over Panama."
},
{
"group": "L",
"teamA": "England",
"teamB": "Ghana",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 66,
"probDraw": 22,
"probWinB": 12,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "England's quality should control Ghana."
},
{
"group": "L",
"teamA": "Panama",
"teamB": "Croatia",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 24,
"probDraw": 28,
"probWinB": 48,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Croatia's midfield experience outclasses Panama."
},
{
"group": "L",
"teamA": "Panama",
"teamB": "England",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 12,
"probDraw": 22,
"probWinB": 66,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "England's talent is a clear level above Panama."
},
{
"group": "L",
"teamA": "Croatia",
"teamB": "Ghana",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 52,
"probDraw": 27,
"probWinB": 21,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Croatia's control edges a spirited Ghana."
}
]
}OpenAIWebOpenAI GPT-5.2 (api.openai.com)Jun 09, 2026, 22:36 UTC · 72 matches
Show JSON output
{
"model": "openai",
"condition": "web",
"predictions": [
{
"group": "A",
"teamA": "Mexico",
"teamB": "South Africa",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 60,
"probDraw": 23,
"probWinB": 17,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Mexico’s deeper squad and host/altitude edge in Mexico City tilt it, though South Africa’s transition threat keeps it competitive."
},
{
"group": "A",
"teamA": "Mexico",
"teamB": "South Korea",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 41,
"probDraw": 31,
"probWinB": 28,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "South Korea’s pressing and wide pace can neutralize Mexico, but Mexico’s home conditions and set-piece quality make a draw most likely."
},
{
"group": "A",
"teamA": "Mexico",
"teamB": "Czech Republic",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 55,
"probDraw": 26,
"probWinB": 19,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Mexico’s ball progression and home advantage project better than a Czech side that can defend well but may struggle to create clear chances away from Europe."
},
{
"group": "A",
"teamA": "South Africa",
"teamB": "South Korea",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 21,
"probDraw": 27,
"probWinB": 52,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "South Korea’s higher baseline quality and more reliable chance creation should edge a low-scoring match against a compact South Africa."
},
{
"group": "A",
"teamA": "South Africa",
"teamB": "Czech Republic",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 26,
"probDraw": 33,
"probWinB": 41,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Czech Republic have the stronger roster but travel/heat variance and South Africa’s athletic midfield make a draw a live outcome."
},
{
"group": "A",
"teamA": "South Korea",
"teamB": "Czech Republic",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 36,
"probDraw": 32,
"probWinB": 32,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Styles clash—Korea’s tempo and pressing versus Czech aerial/structure—projects as balanced with limited separation in neutral conditions."
},
{
"group": "B",
"teamA": "Switzerland",
"teamB": "Canada",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 40,
"probDraw": 33,
"probWinB": 27,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Switzerland’s deeper tournament-tested spine and defensive structure edge it, but Canada’s transition pace and athleticism keep this close and draw-prone at a neutral 2026 venue."
},
{
"group": "B",
"teamA": "Canada",
"teamB": "Bosnia & Herzegovina",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 46,
"probDraw": 28,
"probWinB": 26,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Canada’s press-and-break profile and broader squad athleticism should create more high-value chances than Bosnia, whose outcomes skew on a few key attackers and set pieces."
},
{
"group": "B",
"teamA": "Canada",
"teamB": "Qatar",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 55,
"probDraw": 26,
"probWinB": 19,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Canada’s physicality and directness typically translate better against mid-block opponents, while Qatar’s possession phases can struggle to generate quality chances versus stronger athletes."
},
{
"group": "B",
"teamA": "Switzerland",
"teamB": "Bosnia & Herzegovina",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 58,
"probDraw": 25,
"probWinB": 17,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Switzerland’s compact 4-2-3-1/3-4-2-1 variants and set-piece threat match up well against Bosnia’s slower defensive transitions and limited depth."
},
{
"group": "B",
"teamA": "Switzerland",
"teamB": "Qatar",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 63,
"probDraw": 23,
"probWinB": 14,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Ranking, squad quality, and Switzerland’s controlled tempo plus aerial/second-ball edge make them a strong favorite, with Qatar needing a near-perfect low-block game to draw."
},
{
"group": "B",
"teamA": "Bosnia & Herzegovina",
"teamB": "Qatar",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 36,
"probDraw": 34,
"probWinB": 30,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Both sides are inconsistent in chance creation and can become set-piece reliant, so a low-margin match with a high draw probability is the most likely outcome."
},
{
"group": "C",
"teamA": "Brazil",
"teamB": "Morocco",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 60,
"probDraw": 24,
"probWinB": 16,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Brazil’s superior squad depth and chance creation edge outweigh Morocco’s elite defensive structure and transition threat, making a tight Brazil win most likely."
},
{
"group": "C",
"teamA": "Brazil",
"teamB": "Haiti",
"scoreA": 3,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 86,
"probDraw": 10,
"probWinB": 4,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Brazil’s talent gap and pressing-to-penalty-box efficiency should overwhelm Haiti over 90 minutes even with conservative game-state management."
},
{
"group": "C",
"teamA": "Brazil",
"teamB": "Scotland",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 72,
"probDraw": 19,
"probWinB": 9,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Scotland’s compact block and set-piece danger can keep it close, but Brazil’s individual quality in wide areas and depth typically break such defenses."
},
{
"group": "C",
"teamA": "Morocco",
"teamB": "Haiti",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 74,
"probDraw": 19,
"probWinB": 7,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Morocco’s disciplined 4-3-3/4-1-4-1 pressing triggers and athletic back line should limit Haiti’s counters while creating enough from wide overloads."
},
{
"group": "C",
"teamA": "Morocco",
"teamB": "Scotland",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 32,
"probDraw": 38,
"probWinB": 30,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Both sides are organized, defense-first and strong in duels/set pieces, so a low-scoring draw is slightly more likely than either team separating."
},
{
"group": "C",
"teamA": "Haiti",
"teamB": "Scotland",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 14,
"probDraw": 23,
"probWinB": 63,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Scotland’s physicality, set-piece volume and sustained territory advantage should translate into goals against a Haiti side that struggles to defend long phases."
},
{
"group": "D",
"teamA": "USA",
"teamB": "Paraguay",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 39,
"probDraw": 31,
"probWinB": 30,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "USA’s home-edge and depth balance Paraguay’s compact, transition-oriented style, making a tight, low-variance match most likely to land level."
},
{
"group": "D",
"teamA": "USA",
"teamB": "Australia",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 53,
"probDraw": 25,
"probWinB": 22,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "USA’s higher attacking ceiling and host advantage slightly outweigh Australia’s physicality and set-piece threat in a game where margins are small."
},
{
"group": "D",
"teamA": "USA",
"teamB": "Turkey",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 45,
"probDraw": 27,
"probWinB": 28,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Turkey’s technical midfield can control phases but USA’s athletic press and crowd/conditions edge tilt a close matchup toward a narrow USA win."
},
{
"group": "D",
"teamA": "Paraguay",
"teamB": "Australia",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 41,
"probDraw": 32,
"probWinB": 27,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Paraguay’s defensive structure and game management slightly profile better than Australia’s open-play creation, pointing to a low-scoring result."
},
{
"group": "D",
"teamA": "Paraguay",
"teamB": "Turkey",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 28,
"probDraw": 33,
"probWinB": 39,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Turkey’s chance creation and technical quality give them an edge, but Paraguay’s compact block keeps draw probability high."
},
{
"group": "D",
"teamA": "Australia",
"teamB": "Turkey",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 24,
"probDraw": 29,
"probWinB": 47,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Turkey’s ball progression and finishing quality are favored, while Australia’s aerial threat keeps the game competitive and reduces certainty."
},
{
"group": "E",
"teamA": "Germany",
"teamB": "Curaçao",
"scoreA": 3,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 86,
"probDraw": 10,
"probWinB": 4,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Germany’s depth, pressing structure and set-piece threat should overwhelm a Curaçao side that will likely defend deep and struggle to progress the ball under pressure."
},
{
"group": "E",
"teamA": "Germany",
"teamB": "Ivory Coast",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 58,
"probDraw": 24,
"probWinB": 18,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Ivory Coast’s athleticism and transition danger can create moments, but Germany’s control in possession and chance volume give them the edge."
},
{
"group": "E",
"teamA": "Germany",
"teamB": "Ecuador",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 57,
"probDraw": 25,
"probWinB": 18,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Ecuador’s compact mid-block and aerial/transition strengths keep it close, yet Germany’s technical quality and bench options tilt a tight game."
},
{
"group": "E",
"teamA": "Curaçao",
"teamB": "Ivory Coast",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 9,
"probDraw": 18,
"probWinB": 73,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Ivory Coast’s pace, physicality and ability to win duels should translate into sustained territory and higher-quality chances than Curaçao can generate."
},
{
"group": "E",
"teamA": "Curaçao",
"teamB": "Ecuador",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 14,
"probDraw": 26,
"probWinB": 60,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Ecuador are likely to manage the game with ball-winning midfielders and direct wide attacks, while Curaçao may lack consistent final-third output."
},
{
"group": "E",
"teamA": "Ivory Coast",
"teamB": "Ecuador",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 31,
"probDraw": 35,
"probWinB": 34,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Both sides are strong in transitions and set pieces with similar overall level, making a marginal, draw-prone matchup where finishing variance decides."
},
{
"group": "F",
"teamA": "Netherlands",
"teamB": "Japan",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 55,
"probDraw": 25,
"probWinB": 20,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Netherlands’ superior top-end talent and aerial/transition threat should edge a well-coached Japan side that keeps it close through structure and pressing."
},
{
"group": "F",
"teamA": "Netherlands",
"teamB": "Sweden",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 42,
"probDraw": 31,
"probWinB": 27,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Sweden’s physicality and set-piece strength can neutralize Dutch build-up for long spells, making a tight, low-margin draw likely."
},
{
"group": "F",
"teamA": "Netherlands",
"teamB": "Tunisia",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 68,
"probDraw": 21,
"probWinB": 11,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "The Dutch should control territory and chance quality against a Tunisia team that defends deep but struggles to create enough high-quality looks."
},
{
"group": "F",
"teamA": "Japan",
"teamB": "Sweden",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 33,
"probDraw": 34,
"probWinB": 33,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Japan’s tempo and combination play meets Sweden’s directness and box presence in a matchup that tends to hinge on a few moments and set pieces."
},
{
"group": "F",
"teamA": "Japan",
"teamB": "Tunisia",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 48,
"probDraw": 30,
"probWinB": 22,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Japan’s compact pressing and ball security should generate just enough chances while Tunisia’s low block keeps the scoreline narrow."
},
{
"group": "F",
"teamA": "Sweden",
"teamB": "Tunisia",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 54,
"probDraw": 28,
"probWinB": 18,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Sweden’s crossing, set-piece volume, and defensive stability are a strong profile against Tunisia’s limited progression and finishing."
},
{
"group": "G",
"teamA": "Belgium",
"teamB": "Egypt",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 55,
"probDraw": 25,
"probWinB": 20,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Belgium’s deeper squad and chance creation edge them, but Egypt’s compact 4-3-3 and counter threat keep it tight, especially if played in heat."
},
{
"group": "G",
"teamA": "Belgium",
"teamB": "Iran",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 57,
"probDraw": 27,
"probWinB": 16,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Iran’s low-block and set-piece resilience often suppresses margins, yet Belgium’s superior individual quality in the final third should find a decisive moment."
},
{
"group": "G",
"teamA": "Belgium",
"teamB": "New Zealand",
"scoreA": 3,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 75,
"probDraw": 16,
"probWinB": 9,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Belgium’s technical level and depth should overwhelm New Zealand across 90 minutes, with New Zealand struggling to sustain possession or defend wide areas."
},
{
"group": "G",
"teamA": "Egypt",
"teamB": "Iran",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 34,
"probDraw": 36,
"probWinB": 30,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Both sides are tactically conservative and well-drilled defensively, making a low-event match likely where a set piece or transition can swing it either way."
},
{
"group": "G",
"teamA": "Egypt",
"teamB": "New Zealand",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 60,
"probDraw": 25,
"probWinB": 15,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Egypt’s athletic wide play and stronger attacking talent should translate into territory and chances, while New Zealand’s path to goals is limited without sustained set-piece dominance."
},
{
"group": "G",
"teamA": "Iran",
"teamB": "New Zealand",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 49,
"probDraw": 32,
"probWinB": 19,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Iran’s structured pressing-to-block approach and game management give them the edge, though New Zealand’s aerial threat keeps draw probability relatively high."
},
{
"group": "H",
"teamA": "Spain",
"teamB": "Cape Verde",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 74,
"probDraw": 18,
"probWinB": 8,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Spain’s possession structure and depth should pin Cape Verde back for long stretches, with talent gap and tournament experience outweighing Cape Verde’s athletic transition threat."
},
{
"group": "H",
"teamA": "Spain",
"teamB": "Saudi Arabia",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 72,
"probDraw": 20,
"probWinB": 8,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Saudi Arabia’s compact 4-4-2/4-5-1 can delay chances, but Spain’s chance volume and pressing should eventually create high-quality looks while limiting counters."
},
{
"group": "H",
"teamA": "Spain",
"teamB": "Uruguay",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 39,
"probDraw": 33,
"probWinB": 28,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Uruguay’s directness, aerial/transition threat and elite defensive spine match up well against Spain’s high line, making a tight, low-margin draw slightly likelier than either side winning."
},
{
"group": "H",
"teamA": "Cape Verde",
"teamB": "Saudi Arabia",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 31,
"probDraw": 36,
"probWinB": 33,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "These sides are closer in baseline quality, with Cape Verde’s physicality and set-piece threat offset by Saudi Arabia’s organization and counter-attacking patterns."
},
{
"group": "H",
"teamA": "Cape Verde",
"teamB": "Uruguay",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 10,
"probDraw": 20,
"probWinB": 70,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Uruguay’s midfield ball-winning and vertical progression should repeatedly generate transition and set-piece opportunities, while Cape Verde may struggle to sustain pressure or defend crosses."
},
{
"group": "H",
"teamA": "Saudi Arabia",
"teamB": "Uruguay",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 12,
"probDraw": 27,
"probWinB": 61,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Saudi Arabia can keep blocks compact, but Uruguay’s physical edge, set-piece quality and ability to win territory should produce enough high-leverage moments to edge it."
},
{
"group": "I",
"teamA": "France",
"teamB": "Senegal",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 55,
"probDraw": 25,
"probWinB": 20,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "France’s deeper squad and higher ceiling in chance creation should edge a physically strong Senegal side, though transition threat keeps it close in likely warm/variable North American conditions."
},
{
"group": "I",
"teamA": "France",
"teamB": "Iraq",
"scoreA": 3,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 78,
"probDraw": 16,
"probWinB": 6,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "France’s elite talent and tactical control should overwhelm Iraq over 90 minutes, with quality depth reducing upset risk even if conditions are taxing."
},
{
"group": "I",
"teamA": "France",
"teamB": "Norway",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 62,
"probDraw": 23,
"probWinB": 15,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Norway’s top-end finishing threat is real but France’s midfield/defensive structure and superior roster balance should limit service and win by a clear margin."
},
{
"group": "I",
"teamA": "Senegal",
"teamB": "Iraq",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 64,
"probDraw": 25,
"probWinB": 11,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Senegal’s athleticism and pressing should generate higher-volume chances than Iraq can match, with set-piece and transition edges likely decisive."
},
{
"group": "I",
"teamA": "Senegal",
"teamB": "Norway",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 33,
"probDraw": 34,
"probWinB": 33,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Styles clash evenly—Senegal’s pace/duels versus Norway’s direct threat—making a balanced matchup where game state and finishing variance drive a draw-heavy distribution."
},
{
"group": "I",
"teamA": "Iraq",
"teamB": "Norway",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 14,
"probDraw": 24,
"probWinB": 62,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Norway’s superior attacking quality and aerial/direct options should translate into a clear xG edge, while Iraq may struggle to sustain pressure or defend repeated entries."
},
{
"group": "J",
"teamA": "Argentina",
"teamB": "Algeria",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 72,
"probDraw": 19,
"probWinB": 9,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Argentina’s deeper squad and elite chance creation should control the game, while Algeria’s transition threat is real but typically needs higher-variance moments to upset top sides."
},
{
"group": "J",
"teamA": "Argentina",
"teamB": "Austria",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 60,
"probDraw": 24,
"probWinB": 16,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Austria’s well-drilled press and set-piece edge can stress Argentina, but Argentina’s top-end attackers and big-game management tilt a tight match their way."
},
{
"group": "J",
"teamA": "Argentina",
"teamB": "Jordan",
"scoreA": 3,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 83,
"probDraw": 13,
"probWinB": 4,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "The talent gap and Argentina’s ability to break low blocks with multiple creators makes a controlled win likely even with some rotation."
},
{
"group": "J",
"teamA": "Algeria",
"teamB": "Austria",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 27,
"probDraw": 34,
"probWinB": 39,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Austria’s structured intensity gives them a slight edge, but Algeria’s athletic wide play and counterattacks make this a high-variance, draw-prone matchup."
},
{
"group": "J",
"teamA": "Algeria",
"teamB": "Jordan",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 55,
"probDraw": 27,
"probWinB": 18,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Algeria’s stronger midfield ball-winning and flank progression should generate more shots, though Jordan can keep it close via compact defending and set pieces."
},
{
"group": "J",
"teamA": "Austria",
"teamB": "Jordan",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 66,
"probDraw": 22,
"probWinB": 12,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Austria’s pressing triggers and territorial control should pin Jordan back, with Jordan needing rare transitions to threaten consistently."
},
{
"group": "K",
"teamA": "Portugal",
"teamB": "DR Congo",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 68,
"probDraw": 22,
"probWinB": 10,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Portugal’s depth, chance creation and tournament management should overwhelm DR Congo, whose transition threat is real but likely limited by Portugal’s control and defensive structure."
},
{
"group": "K",
"teamA": "Portugal",
"teamB": "Uzbekistan",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 60,
"probDraw": 25,
"probWinB": 15,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Uzbekistan’s compact low block can keep it close, but Portugal’s superior wide quality and set-piece edge tilt a narrow win."
},
{
"group": "K",
"teamA": "Portugal",
"teamB": "Colombia",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 38,
"probDraw": 32,
"probWinB": 30,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Colombia’s cohesive pressing-and-counter profile matches up well with Portugal’s possession game, making a balanced, low-error draw the most likely."
},
{
"group": "K",
"teamA": "DR Congo",
"teamB": "Uzbekistan",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 31,
"probDraw": 36,
"probWinB": 33,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Both sides are tactically conservative with limited elite finishing, so a tight match with few high-quality chances points to a draw."
},
{
"group": "K",
"teamA": "DR Congo",
"teamB": "Colombia",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 18,
"probDraw": 27,
"probWinB": 55,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Colombia’s midfield control and more reliable chance conversion should prevail against DR Congo, even if athletic duels keep margins small."
},
{
"group": "K",
"teamA": "Uzbekistan",
"teamB": "Colombia",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 16,
"probDraw": 30,
"probWinB": 54,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Uzbekistan can defend compactly but Colombia’s structured buildup and set-piece threat make them likelier to find the decisive goal."
},
{
"group": "L",
"teamA": "England",
"teamB": "Croatia",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 52,
"probDraw": 26,
"probWinB": 22,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "England’s deeper squad and attacking depth edge a still-elite but aging Croatian core, with tactical balance likely producing a tight match."
},
{
"group": "L",
"teamA": "England",
"teamB": "Ghana",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 62,
"probDraw": 23,
"probWinB": 15,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "England’s control in possession and set-piece threat should limit Ghana’s transition game over 90 minutes."
},
{
"group": "L",
"teamA": "England",
"teamB": "Panama",
"scoreA": 3,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 75,
"probDraw": 17,
"probWinB": 8,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Talent gap and England’s ability to break down lower blocks make a comfortable win the most likely outcome."
},
{
"group": "L",
"teamA": "Croatia",
"teamB": "Ghana",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 39,
"probDraw": 32,
"probWinB": 29,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Croatia’s midfield control meets Ghana’s athletic pressing and counter threat, making a draw a strong outcome in a low-margin game."
},
{
"group": "L",
"teamA": "Croatia",
"teamB": "Panama",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 64,
"probDraw": 24,
"probWinB": 12,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Croatia’s structure and game management should create enough chances while minimizing Panama’s limited attacking output."
},
{
"group": "L",
"teamA": "Ghana",
"teamB": "Panama",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 55,
"probDraw": 27,
"probWinB": 18,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Ghana’s pace and individual quality in wide areas should generate more high-value chances than Panama across a single match."
}
]
}ClaudeBaselineClaude Opus 4.8 (API via LiteLLM)Jun 10, 2026, 21:04 UTC · 72 matches
Show JSON output
{
"model": "claude",
"condition": "baseline",
"predictions": [
{
"group": "A",
"teamA": "Mexico",
"teamB": "South Africa",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 62,
"probDraw": 24,
"probWinB": 14,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Host Mexico's home advantage, altitude and superior squad depth outweigh a spirited but lower-ranked South Africa."
},
{
"group": "A",
"teamA": "South Korea",
"teamB": "Czech Republic",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 41,
"probDraw": 29,
"probWinB": 30,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Son-led South Korea edge a balanced clash, but the Czechs' structure makes a draw very plausible."
},
{
"group": "A",
"teamA": "Czech Republic",
"teamB": "South Africa",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 45,
"probDraw": 28,
"probWinB": 27,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Czech quality slightly favored, but South Africa's pace and recent improvement keep this close."
},
{
"group": "A",
"teamA": "Mexico",
"teamB": "South Korea",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 45,
"probDraw": 28,
"probWinB": 27,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Home Mexico is favored, but South Korea's attacking talent led by Son makes this a tight key match."
},
{
"group": "A",
"teamA": "Czech Republic",
"teamB": "Mexico",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 30,
"probDraw": 29,
"probWinB": 41,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Mexico's hosting status and depth give them a slight edge over a solid but inconsistent Czech side."
},
{
"group": "A",
"teamA": "South Africa",
"teamB": "South Korea",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 30,
"probDraw": 28,
"probWinB": 42,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "South Korea's greater individual quality favors them, though South Africa's athleticism keeps it competitive."
},
{
"group": "B",
"teamA": "Canada",
"teamB": "Bosnia & Herzegovina",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 40,
"probDraw": 28,
"probWinB": 32,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Home advantage and Canada's improving core offset Bosnia's individual quality in a tight opener."
},
{
"group": "B",
"teamA": "Qatar",
"teamB": "Switzerland",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 14,
"probDraw": 24,
"probWinB": 62,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Switzerland's superior squad depth and tournament pedigree should comfortably overcome Qatar."
},
{
"group": "B",
"teamA": "Switzerland",
"teamB": "Bosnia & Herzegovina",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 44,
"probDraw": 29,
"probWinB": 27,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Switzerland are favorites but Bosnia's attacking threat keeps this competitive."
},
{
"group": "B",
"teamA": "Canada",
"teamB": "Qatar",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 58,
"probDraw": 25,
"probWinB": 17,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Host backing and pace on the flanks make Canada clear favorites over Qatar."
},
{
"group": "B",
"teamA": "Switzerland",
"teamB": "Canada",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 42,
"probDraw": 29,
"probWinB": 29,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Swiss organization narrowly edges it but Canada's hosts energy keeps this even."
},
{
"group": "B",
"teamA": "Bosnia & Herzegovina",
"teamB": "Qatar",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 56,
"probDraw": 26,
"probWinB": 18,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Bosnia's stronger individual quality and Dzeko-led attack should overpower Qatar."
},
{
"group": "C",
"teamA": "Brazil",
"teamB": "Morocco",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 58,
"probDraw": 25,
"probWinB": 17,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Brazil's superior individual quality edges a strong, well-organized Moroccan side capable of springing surprises."
},
{
"group": "C",
"teamA": "Haiti",
"teamB": "Scotland",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 18,
"probDraw": 27,
"probWinB": 55,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Scotland's greater depth and European tournament experience should overcome a lower-ranked Haiti."
},
{
"group": "C",
"teamA": "Scotland",
"teamB": "Morocco",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 28,
"probDraw": 28,
"probWinB": 44,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Morocco's deeper talent pool and semi-final pedigree from 2022 gives them the edge over Scotland."
},
{
"group": "C",
"teamA": "Brazil",
"teamB": "Haiti",
"scoreA": 3,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 88,
"probDraw": 9,
"probWinB": 3,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "A clear gulf in class makes Brazil overwhelming favorites against Haiti."
},
{
"group": "C",
"teamA": "Scotland",
"teamB": "Brazil",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 14,
"probDraw": 23,
"probWinB": 63,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Brazil's attacking firepower should comfortably beat a disciplined but limited Scotland."
},
{
"group": "C",
"teamA": "Morocco",
"teamB": "Haiti",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 72,
"probDraw": 19,
"probWinB": 9,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Morocco's stronger squad and tournament experience should control this match against Haiti."
},
{
"group": "D",
"teamA": "USA",
"teamB": "Paraguay",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 50,
"probDraw": 27,
"probWinB": 23,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Home advantage and attacking depth give the USA the edge over a defensively solid but limited Paraguay."
},
{
"group": "D",
"teamA": "Australia",
"teamB": "Turkey",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 27,
"probDraw": 27,
"probWinB": 46,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Turkey's superior individual quality and European-based talent outweigh Australia's organization and work rate."
},
{
"group": "D",
"teamA": "USA",
"teamB": "Australia",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 52,
"probDraw": 26,
"probWinB": 22,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Home crowd and greater attacking talent favor the USA against a pragmatic Australian side."
},
{
"group": "D",
"teamA": "Turkey",
"teamB": "Paraguay",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 48,
"probDraw": 27,
"probWinB": 25,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Turkey's creative midfield and forward depth should break down Paraguay despite their resilient defense."
},
{
"group": "D",
"teamA": "Turkey",
"teamB": "USA",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 34,
"probDraw": 28,
"probWinB": 38,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "A tight clash of the group's two strongest sides, with USA's home advantage offset by Turkey's individual quality."
},
{
"group": "D",
"teamA": "Paraguay",
"teamB": "Australia",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 37,
"probDraw": 30,
"probWinB": 33,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Two cautious, defensively-minded teams likely produce a low-scoring, evenly matched encounter."
},
{
"group": "E",
"teamA": "Germany",
"teamB": "Curaçao",
"scoreA": 3,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 88,
"probDraw": 9,
"probWinB": 3,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Germany's vastly superior squad depth and individual quality overwhelms World Cup debutants Curaçao."
},
{
"group": "E",
"teamA": "Ivory Coast",
"teamB": "Ecuador",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 36,
"probDraw": 32,
"probWinB": 32,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Two evenly matched sides with strong defenses suggest a tight, low-scoring contest."
},
{
"group": "E",
"teamA": "Germany",
"teamB": "Ivory Coast",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 62,
"probDraw": 23,
"probWinB": 15,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Germany's overall quality edges a physical Ivory Coast side that can punish lapses."
},
{
"group": "E",
"teamA": "Ecuador",
"teamB": "Curaçao",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 72,
"probDraw": 19,
"probWinB": 9,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Ecuador's solid qualifying form and defensive structure should control the debutants."
},
{
"group": "E",
"teamA": "Curaçao",
"teamB": "Ivory Coast",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 12,
"probDraw": 22,
"probWinB": 66,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Ivory Coast's superior attacking talent should overcome the tournament newcomers."
},
{
"group": "E",
"teamA": "Ecuador",
"teamB": "Germany",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 25,
"probDraw": 28,
"probWinB": 47,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Germany's class is favored but resilient Ecuador can take points in a competitive match."
},
{
"group": "F",
"teamA": "Netherlands",
"teamB": "Japan",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 55,
"probDraw": 24,
"probWinB": 21,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Dutch squad depth and individual quality edge Japan's well-organized but lower-ceiling side."
},
{
"group": "F",
"teamA": "Sweden",
"teamB": "Tunisia",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 42,
"probDraw": 30,
"probWinB": 28,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Sweden's attacking talent counters Tunisia's defensive solidity in a tight, low-scoring match."
},
{
"group": "F",
"teamA": "Netherlands",
"teamB": "Sweden",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 52,
"probDraw": 26,
"probWinB": 22,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Netherlands' superior overall squad quality should overcome a dangerous Swedish front line."
},
{
"group": "F",
"teamA": "Tunisia",
"teamB": "Japan",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 28,
"probDraw": 31,
"probWinB": 41,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Japan's quicker tempo and European-based attackers give them the edge over Tunisia."
},
{
"group": "F",
"teamA": "Japan",
"teamB": "Sweden",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 38,
"probDraw": 30,
"probWinB": 32,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Evenly matched sides with Japan's cohesion balancing Sweden's physical and aerial threat."
},
{
"group": "F",
"teamA": "Tunisia",
"teamB": "Netherlands",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 18,
"probDraw": 27,
"probWinB": 55,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Netherlands' class and depth should break down Tunisia's compact defensive block."
},
{
"group": "G",
"teamA": "Belgium",
"teamB": "Egypt",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 55,
"probDraw": 25,
"probWinB": 20,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Belgium's superior squad depth and individual quality outweigh Egypt's Salah-led threat."
},
{
"group": "G",
"teamA": "Iran",
"teamB": "New Zealand",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 58,
"probDraw": 25,
"probWinB": 17,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Iran's stronger attacking talent and tournament pedigree edge a physical but limited New Zealand."
},
{
"group": "G",
"teamA": "Belgium",
"teamB": "Iran",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 60,
"probDraw": 25,
"probWinB": 15,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Belgium's technical superiority should break down Iran's disciplined defensive block."
},
{
"group": "G",
"teamA": "New Zealand",
"teamB": "Egypt",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 25,
"probDraw": 27,
"probWinB": 48,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Egypt's individual quality and Salah's finishing should overcome New Zealand's organization."
},
{
"group": "G",
"teamA": "Egypt",
"teamB": "Iran",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 38,
"probDraw": 30,
"probWinB": 32,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Two well-matched sides likely cancel out in a tight contest for second place."
},
{
"group": "G",
"teamA": "New Zealand",
"teamB": "Belgium",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 14,
"probDraw": 22,
"probWinB": 64,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Belgium's quality gap over New Zealand is the largest in the group."
},
{
"group": "H",
"teamA": "Spain",
"teamB": "Cape Verde",
"scoreA": 3,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 85,
"probDraw": 11,
"probWinB": 4,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Spain's elite squad depth and possession dominance vastly outclass debutant Cape Verde."
},
{
"group": "H",
"teamA": "Saudi Arabia",
"teamB": "Uruguay",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 18,
"probDraw": 26,
"probWinB": 56,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Uruguay's superior individual quality and Bielsa's organization edge a competitive but weaker Saudi side."
},
{
"group": "H",
"teamA": "Spain",
"teamB": "Saudi Arabia",
"scoreA": 3,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 87,
"probDraw": 10,
"probWinB": 3,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Spain's midfield control and depth make a comfortable win highly likely."
},
{
"group": "H",
"teamA": "Uruguay",
"teamB": "Cape Verde",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 70,
"probDraw": 21,
"probWinB": 9,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Uruguay's experience and attacking talent should overcome Cape Verde's spirited resistance."
},
{
"group": "H",
"teamA": "Cape Verde",
"teamB": "Saudi Arabia",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 35,
"probDraw": 31,
"probWinB": 34,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Two evenly matched underdogs likely fight for the group's final scraps in a tight contest."
},
{
"group": "H",
"teamA": "Uruguay",
"teamB": "Spain",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 24,
"probDraw": 27,
"probWinB": 49,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Spain's tactical superiority and squad depth favor them despite Uruguay's competitive physicality."
},
{
"group": "I",
"teamA": "France",
"teamB": "Senegal",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 58,
"probDraw": 24,
"probWinB": 18,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "France's superior squad depth and elite attack edge a strong, physical Senegal side."
},
{
"group": "I",
"teamA": "Iraq",
"teamB": "Norway",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 18,
"probDraw": 25,
"probWinB": 57,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Norway's Haaland-Odegaard core outclasses Iraq, though heat could level the physical battle."
},
{
"group": "I",
"teamA": "France",
"teamB": "Iraq",
"scoreA": 3,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 82,
"probDraw": 13,
"probWinB": 5,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "France's quality gap over Iraq is substantial across every position."
},
{
"group": "I",
"teamA": "Norway",
"teamB": "Senegal",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 38,
"probDraw": 28,
"probWinB": 34,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Two evenly matched sides with Haaland's threat offset by Senegal's defensive solidity."
},
{
"group": "I",
"teamA": "Norway",
"teamB": "France",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 26,
"probDraw": 26,
"probWinB": 48,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "France's overall depth favors them despite Norway's dangerous attacking duo."
},
{
"group": "I",
"teamA": "Senegal",
"teamB": "Iraq",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 68,
"probDraw": 22,
"probWinB": 10,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Senegal's European-based talent and pace should overcome a disciplined Iraq."
},
{
"group": "J",
"teamA": "Argentina",
"teamB": "Algeria",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 72,
"probDraw": 19,
"probWinB": 9,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Reigning world champions with Messi-era core and far superior squad depth outclass a solid but lower-tier Algeria side."
},
{
"group": "J",
"teamA": "Austria",
"teamB": "Jordan",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 64,
"probDraw": 23,
"probWinB": 13,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Austria's stronger European individual quality and tournament pedigree should overcome a disciplined but limited Jordan debutant."
},
{
"group": "J",
"teamA": "Argentina",
"teamB": "Austria",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 60,
"probDraw": 24,
"probWinB": 16,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Argentina's elite attacking talent edges a well-organized Austria that can trouble them but lacks comparable top-end quality."
},
{
"group": "J",
"teamA": "Jordan",
"teamB": "Algeria",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 31,
"probDraw": 31,
"probWinB": 38,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Closely matched sides with Algeria's marginally higher ceiling balanced by Jordan's recent competitive resilience."
},
{
"group": "J",
"teamA": "Algeria",
"teamB": "Austria",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 33,
"probDraw": 28,
"probWinB": 39,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Evenly poised game where Austria's depth slightly outweighs Algeria's flair-based attacking threat."
},
{
"group": "J",
"teamA": "Jordan",
"teamB": "Argentina",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 3,
"probWinA": 7,
"probDraw": 16,
"probWinB": 77,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Argentina's overwhelming quality gap makes a comfortable win the clear expectation against a World Cup newcomer."
},
{
"group": "K",
"teamA": "Portugal",
"teamB": "DR Congo",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 68,
"probDraw": 21,
"probWinB": 11,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Portugal's superior squad depth and individual quality outclass a physical but less consistent DR Congo."
},
{
"group": "K",
"teamA": "Uzbekistan",
"teamB": "Colombia",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 17,
"probDraw": 26,
"probWinB": 57,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Colombia's attacking talent and experience edge a disciplined but less proven Uzbekistan on their World Cup debut."
},
{
"group": "K",
"teamA": "Portugal",
"teamB": "Uzbekistan",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 72,
"probDraw": 19,
"probWinB": 9,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Portugal's elite midfield and finishing should comfortably break down Uzbekistan's defensive setup."
},
{
"group": "K",
"teamA": "Colombia",
"teamB": "DR Congo",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 48,
"probDraw": 28,
"probWinB": 24,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Colombia are favored but DR Congo's pace and athleticism make this a tougher contest than ranking suggests."
},
{
"group": "K",
"teamA": "Colombia",
"teamB": "Portugal",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 30,
"probDraw": 30,
"probWinB": 40,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "A top-of-group clash between two strong sides where Portugal's depth gives a slight edge but a draw is very plausible."
},
{
"group": "K",
"teamA": "DR Congo",
"teamB": "Uzbekistan",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 40,
"probDraw": 29,
"probWinB": 31,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "An evenly matched fixture likely decisive for second place, with DR Congo's individual quality narrowly favored."
},
{
"group": "L",
"teamA": "England",
"teamB": "Croatia",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 52,
"probDraw": 27,
"probWinB": 21,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "England's deeper, younger squad edges an aging but tactically savvy Croatia midfield."
},
{
"group": "L",
"teamA": "Ghana",
"teamB": "Panama",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 45,
"probDraw": 28,
"probWinB": 27,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Ghana's individual quality is offset by Panama's organization and tournament resilience."
},
{
"group": "L",
"teamA": "England",
"teamB": "Ghana",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 68,
"probDraw": 22,
"probWinB": 10,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "England's superior squad depth and attacking talent should comfortably overcome Ghana."
},
{
"group": "L",
"teamA": "Panama",
"teamB": "Croatia",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 22,
"probDraw": 28,
"probWinB": 50,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Croatia's midfield control and experience outclass Panama despite Concacaf familiarity with venues."
},
{
"group": "L",
"teamA": "Panama",
"teamB": "England",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 11,
"probDraw": 21,
"probWinB": 68,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "England's class gap over Panama is decisive even with regional home-continent support."
},
{
"group": "L",
"teamA": "Croatia",
"teamB": "Ghana",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 50,
"probDraw": 26,
"probWinB": 24,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Croatia's midfield pedigree should control the game against an athletic but less polished Ghana."
}
]
}OpenAIBaselineOpenAI GPT-5.2 (API via LiteLLM)Jun 10, 2026, 21:01 UTC · 72 matches
Show JSON output
{
"model": "openai",
"condition": "baseline",
"predictions": [
{
"group": "A",
"teamA": "Mexico",
"teamB": "South Africa",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 62,
"probDraw": 24,
"probWinB": 14,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Mexico’s deeper squad and strong home-region advantage (crowd, climate/altitude adaptation) should translate into territorial control and more chances."
},
{
"group": "A",
"teamA": "South Korea",
"teamB": "Czech Republic",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 33,
"probDraw": 34,
"probWinB": 33,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "This looks like a stylistic stalemate—Korea’s pace and pressing versus Czech physicality and set-piece threat—making a draw the most likely outcome."
},
{
"group": "A",
"teamA": "Czech Republic",
"teamB": "South Africa",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 48,
"probDraw": 30,
"probWinB": 22,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Czech Republic’s structure and aerial/set-piece edge give them a higher floor in a tight match where South Africa can struggle to create clear chances."
},
{
"group": "A",
"teamA": "Mexico",
"teamB": "South Korea",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 44,
"probDraw": 29,
"probWinB": 27,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Mexico’s home-region edge and ball progression quality slightly outweigh Korea’s transition threat, pointing to a narrow Mexico win."
},
{
"group": "A",
"teamA": "Czech Republic",
"teamB": "Mexico",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 30,
"probDraw": 35,
"probWinB": 35,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Mexico have more attacking talent, but Czech compactness and set pieces can neutralize them, making a draw a strong central outcome."
},
{
"group": "A",
"teamA": "South Africa",
"teamB": "South Korea",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 24,
"probDraw": 30,
"probWinB": 46,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "South Korea’s higher tempo and wider attacking options should create more repeatable chances than South Africa over 90 minutes."
},
{
"group": "B",
"teamA": "Canada",
"teamB": "Bosnia & Herzegovina",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 38,
"probDraw": 30,
"probWinB": 32,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Canada’s home-environment edge and athletic transition threat are balanced by Bosnia’s experience and set-piece/box defending, making a tight, low-margin game likely."
},
{
"group": "B",
"teamA": "Qatar",
"teamB": "Switzerland",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 16,
"probDraw": 24,
"probWinB": 60,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Switzerland’s deeper squad, defensive structure, and tournament know-how should control territory and limit Qatar’s chance volume."
},
{
"group": "B",
"teamA": "Switzerland",
"teamB": "Bosnia & Herzegovina",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 55,
"probDraw": 27,
"probWinB": 18,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Switzerland’s midfield control and organized pressing/defending profile match up well against Bosnia’s slower build-up and reliance on moments."
},
{
"group": "B",
"teamA": "Canada",
"teamB": "Qatar",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 52,
"probDraw": 26,
"probWinB": 22,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Canada’s pace and directness in transition plus crowd/conditions advantage should create more high-quality chances than Qatar over 90 minutes."
},
{
"group": "B",
"teamA": "Switzerland",
"teamB": "Canada",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 46,
"probDraw": 29,
"probWinB": 25,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Switzerland’s compact defensive block and set-piece edge slightly outweigh Canada’s counterattacking threat in a likely low-scoring match."
},
{
"group": "B",
"teamA": "Bosnia & Herzegovina",
"teamB": "Qatar",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 44,
"probDraw": 30,
"probWinB": 26,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Both sides project as inconsistent chance creators, but Bosnia’s aerial/physical edge and experience in managing game states give them a narrow lean."
},
{
"group": "C",
"teamA": "Brazil",
"teamB": "Morocco",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 62,
"probDraw": 23,
"probWinB": 15,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Brazil’s superior depth and chance creation edge Morocco, though Morocco’s compact, transition-based style keeps it competitive."
},
{
"group": "C",
"teamA": "Haiti",
"teamB": "Scotland",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 14,
"probDraw": 26,
"probWinB": 60,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Scotland’s physicality, set-piece threat and higher overall squad level should translate into sustained territorial pressure and goals."
},
{
"group": "C",
"teamA": "Scotland",
"teamB": "Morocco",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 28,
"probDraw": 34,
"probWinB": 38,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Morocco’s defensive structure and counter-attacking efficiency slightly outweigh Scotland’s direct play, making a tight draw the modal outcome."
},
{
"group": "C",
"teamA": "Brazil",
"teamB": "Haiti",
"scoreA": 3,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 86,
"probDraw": 10,
"probWinB": 4,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "The talent gap and Brazil’s ability to generate high-quality chances from multiple sources make this a likely comfortable win."
},
{
"group": "C",
"teamA": "Scotland",
"teamB": "Brazil",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 12,
"probDraw": 22,
"probWinB": 66,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Brazil’s technical superiority and attacking depth should overcome Scotland’s defensive organization over 90 minutes."
},
{
"group": "C",
"teamA": "Morocco",
"teamB": "Haiti",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 71,
"probDraw": 20,
"probWinB": 9,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Morocco’s disciplined pressing and transition quality should limit Haiti’s chances while producing enough clear looks to win."
},
{
"group": "D",
"teamA": "USA",
"teamB": "Paraguay",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 48,
"probDraw": 28,
"probWinB": 24,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "USA’s deeper pool and home-conditions edge (travel, crowd, climate familiarity) slightly outweigh Paraguay’s compact, physical low-block threat."
},
{
"group": "D",
"teamA": "Australia",
"teamB": "Turkey",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 30,
"probDraw": 33,
"probWinB": 37,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Turkey’s higher individual quality in attack is balanced by Australia’s tournament-tested structure and set-piece/transition efficiency, pointing to a tight game."
},
{
"group": "D",
"teamA": "USA",
"teamB": "Australia",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 45,
"probDraw": 30,
"probWinB": 25,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "USA’s athletic midfield/pressing and home advantage project slightly better chance creation than Australia’s more conservative chance profile."
},
{
"group": "D",
"teamA": "Turkey",
"teamB": "Paraguay",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 41,
"probDraw": 31,
"probWinB": 28,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Turkey’s technical edge and ability to progress the ball should generate more sustained pressure than Paraguay, who often rely on duels and set pieces."
},
{
"group": "D",
"teamA": "Turkey",
"teamB": "USA",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 33,
"probDraw": 32,
"probWinB": 35,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "On neutral-ish conditions Turkey’s creativity and USA’s pace/pressing look closely matched, making a draw the modal outcome."
},
{
"group": "D",
"teamA": "Paraguay",
"teamB": "Australia",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 34,
"probDraw": 34,
"probWinB": 32,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Both sides are defensively organized and direct, so margins likely come from set pieces and second balls rather than open-play dominance."
},
{
"group": "E",
"teamA": "Germany",
"teamB": "Curaçao",
"scoreA": 3,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 86,
"probDraw": 10,
"probWinB": 4,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Germany’s depth, pressing structure and chance creation should overwhelm Curaçao’s limited top-level defensive resistance over 90 minutes."
},
{
"group": "E",
"teamA": "Ivory Coast",
"teamB": "Ecuador",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 36,
"probDraw": 33,
"probWinB": 31,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "This profiles as a balanced matchup where Ivory Coast’s individual quality meets Ecuador’s compact organization and transition threat, making a draw slightly likelier than either edge."
},
{
"group": "E",
"teamA": "Germany",
"teamB": "Ivory Coast",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 55,
"probDraw": 25,
"probWinB": 20,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Germany’s control in possession and deeper bench give them the higher win probability, but Ivory Coast’s athleticism and direct threat keep it close."
},
{
"group": "E",
"teamA": "Ecuador",
"teamB": "Curaçao",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 68,
"probDraw": 22,
"probWinB": 10,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Ecuador’s physicality and defensive solidity should limit Curaçao’s chances while creating enough from set pieces and transitions to win."
},
{
"group": "E",
"teamA": "Curaçao",
"teamB": "Ivory Coast",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 9,
"probDraw": 18,
"probWinB": 73,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Ivory Coast’s pace and power in wide areas plus superior finishing quality should translate into a fairly comfortable result."
},
{
"group": "E",
"teamA": "Ecuador",
"teamB": "Germany",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 22,
"probDraw": 26,
"probWinB": 52,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Even with travel/conditions potentially narrowing margins, Germany’s overall talent level and ability to generate high-quality chances make them favorites."
},
{
"group": "F",
"teamA": "Netherlands",
"teamB": "Japan",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 55,
"probDraw": 25,
"probWinB": 20,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Netherlands’ higher top-end talent and physical edge in duels/box presence slightly outweigh Japan’s cohesion and pressing structure on neutral ground."
},
{
"group": "F",
"teamA": "Sweden",
"teamB": "Tunisia",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 45,
"probDraw": 32,
"probWinB": 23,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Sweden’s set-piece threat and aerial dominance project well against a Tunisia side that is organized but often lower-ceiling in chance creation."
},
{
"group": "F",
"teamA": "Netherlands",
"teamB": "Sweden",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 58,
"probDraw": 26,
"probWinB": 16,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Netherlands’ ball progression and attacking depth should generate more high-quality chances than Sweden’s typically direct, lower-possession approach."
},
{
"group": "F",
"teamA": "Tunisia",
"teamB": "Japan",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 24,
"probDraw": 33,
"probWinB": 43,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Japan’s tempo, pressing and technical security in midfield give them the clearer path to creating chances versus Tunisia’s compact block."
},
{
"group": "F",
"teamA": "Japan",
"teamB": "Sweden",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 34,
"probDraw": 34,
"probWinB": 32,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Styles clash—Japan’s possession/pressing versus Sweden’s transitions and set pieces—makes this a high-variance matchup with draw value."
},
{
"group": "F",
"teamA": "Tunisia",
"teamB": "Netherlands",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 14,
"probDraw": 24,
"probWinB": 62,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Netherlands’ superior individual quality and depth across the front line should tell over 90 minutes against Tunisia’s disciplined but limited attack."
},
{
"group": "G",
"teamA": "Belgium",
"teamB": "Egypt",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 62,
"probDraw": 24,
"probWinB": 14,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Belgium’s deeper pool of elite attackers and chance creation should overwhelm an Egypt side that often relies on low-block defending and transitions."
},
{
"group": "G",
"teamA": "Iran",
"teamB": "New Zealand",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 46,
"probDraw": 31,
"probWinB": 23,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Iran’s compact defensive structure and set-piece threat give them a narrow edge over New Zealand’s typically lower-volume attack."
},
{
"group": "G",
"teamA": "Belgium",
"teamB": "Iran",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 58,
"probDraw": 25,
"probWinB": 17,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Iran can frustrate with a disciplined block, but Belgium’s individual quality in the final third is more likely to decide it."
},
{
"group": "G",
"teamA": "New Zealand",
"teamB": "Egypt",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 28,
"probDraw": 36,
"probWinB": 36,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Both sides tend to play pragmatically, making a low-scoring, set-piece-influenced draw the most likely outcome."
},
{
"group": "G",
"teamA": "Egypt",
"teamB": "Iran",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 33,
"probDraw": 35,
"probWinB": 32,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Two defensively organized teams with limited open-play chances point to a tight match where neither has a clear stylistic advantage."
},
{
"group": "G",
"teamA": "New Zealand",
"teamB": "Belgium",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 12,
"probDraw": 22,
"probWinB": 66,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Belgium’s superior technical level and depth should translate into sustained pressure and multiple high-quality chances against New Zealand."
},
{
"group": "H",
"teamA": "Spain",
"teamB": "Cape Verde",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 78,
"probDraw": 16,
"probWinB": 6,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Spain’s technical depth and control-oriented style should pin Cape Verde back for long spells, limiting transition chances."
},
{
"group": "H",
"teamA": "Saudi Arabia",
"teamB": "Uruguay",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 18,
"probDraw": 28,
"probWinB": 54,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Uruguay’s higher-end duel winners and set-piece threat give them the edge against a Saudi side that can struggle to create versus compact blocks."
},
{
"group": "H",
"teamA": "Spain",
"teamB": "Saudi Arabia",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 74,
"probDraw": 18,
"probWinB": 8,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Spain’s press resistance and sustained possession should suppress Saudi counterattacks and generate enough high-quality chances."
},
{
"group": "H",
"teamA": "Uruguay",
"teamB": "Cape Verde",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 70,
"probDraw": 21,
"probWinB": 9,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Uruguay’s physicality and directness (especially on dead balls) are a strong matchup versus Cape Verde’s defensive depth."
},
{
"group": "H",
"teamA": "Cape Verde",
"teamB": "Saudi Arabia",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 30,
"probDraw": 36,
"probWinB": 34,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "This profiles as a low-margin game where Saudi’s structure meets Cape Verde’s athletic transitions, making a draw the modal outcome."
},
{
"group": "H",
"teamA": "Uruguay",
"teamB": "Spain",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 30,
"probDraw": 34,
"probWinB": 36,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Spain’s ball dominance is offset by Uruguay’s ability to defend the box and punish turnovers, producing a near-coinflip with draw bias."
},
{
"group": "I",
"teamA": "France",
"teamB": "Senegal",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 58,
"probDraw": 24,
"probWinB": 18,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "France’s depth and chance creation edge over 90 minutes outweigh Senegal’s athleticism and transition threat, making France a clear but not overwhelming favorite."
},
{
"group": "I",
"teamA": "Iraq",
"teamB": "Norway",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 16,
"probDraw": 24,
"probWinB": 60,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Norway’s higher-end attacking talent and set-piece/box presence should translate into more high-quality chances than Iraq can generate."
},
{
"group": "I",
"teamA": "France",
"teamB": "Iraq",
"scoreA": 3,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 78,
"probDraw": 15,
"probWinB": 7,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "The gap in squad quality and tournament-level control is large, with France likely to dominate territory and limit Iraq to low-probability looks."
},
{
"group": "I",
"teamA": "Norway",
"teamB": "Senegal",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 30,
"probDraw": 30,
"probWinB": 40,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "This profiles as a tight matchup where Senegal’s midfield/defensive athleticism can blunt Norway’s direct threat, increasing draw and narrow-away-win outcomes."
},
{
"group": "I",
"teamA": "Norway",
"teamB": "France",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 20,
"probDraw": 24,
"probWinB": 56,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "France’s ability to control phases and create from multiple channels should outlast Norway’s reliance on fewer, more direct attacking routes."
},
{
"group": "I",
"teamA": "Senegal",
"teamB": "Iraq",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 62,
"probDraw": 24,
"probWinB": 14,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Senegal’s physical intensity and ball-winning should keep Iraq pinned back and produce enough chances to win without needing a shootout."
},
{
"group": "J",
"teamA": "Argentina",
"teamB": "Algeria",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 72,
"probDraw": 19,
"probWinB": 9,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Argentina’s superior depth, pressing resistance and chance creation should overwhelm an Algeria side that can be dangerous in transitions but is usually outmatched in control phases."
},
{
"group": "J",
"teamA": "Austria",
"teamB": "Jordan",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 64,
"probDraw": 23,
"probWinB": 13,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Austria’s structured high-intensity system and stronger European-based squad quality project to generate more sustained pressure than Jordan can handle."
},
{
"group": "J",
"teamA": "Argentina",
"teamB": "Austria",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 58,
"probDraw": 25,
"probWinB": 17,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Austria’s pressing can create moments, but Argentina’s elite ball security and individual match-winners tilt a tight game their way."
},
{
"group": "J",
"teamA": "Jordan",
"teamB": "Algeria",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 24,
"probDraw": 33,
"probWinB": 43,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Algeria have the higher ceiling in attacking talent, but Jordan’s compact defending and game-state management make a draw a live outcome."
},
{
"group": "J",
"teamA": "Algeria",
"teamB": "Austria",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 28,
"probDraw": 29,
"probWinB": 43,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Austria’s organized press and set-piece threat give them an edge over an Algeria side that can be inconsistent when forced to defend for long stretches."
},
{
"group": "J",
"teamA": "Jordan",
"teamB": "Argentina",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 8,
"probDraw": 18,
"probWinB": 74,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Argentina should control territory and limit transition risk, with Jordan likely struggling to create enough high-quality chances to upset them."
},
{
"group": "K",
"teamA": "Portugal",
"teamB": "DR Congo",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 68,
"probDraw": 21,
"probWinB": 11,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Portugal’s superior depth and chance creation against a DR Congo side that can be athletic but less consistent defensively makes a controlled Portugal win the modal outcome."
},
{
"group": "K",
"teamA": "Uzbekistan",
"teamB": "Colombia",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 18,
"probDraw": 28,
"probWinB": 54,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Colombia’s higher overall quality and physical midfield/pressing edge should translate into more high-value chances even if Uzbekistan keep it compact."
},
{
"group": "K",
"teamA": "Portugal",
"teamB": "Uzbekistan",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 72,
"probDraw": 19,
"probWinB": 9,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Portugal’s technical superiority and wide/half-space combinations are a strong matchup versus an Uzbekistan block that may struggle to progress the ball under pressure."
},
{
"group": "K",
"teamA": "Colombia",
"teamB": "DR Congo",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 57,
"probDraw": 27,
"probWinB": 16,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Colombia’s defensive structure and transition threat give them the edge, while DR Congo’s athleticism keeps the draw probability meaningful."
},
{
"group": "K",
"teamA": "Colombia",
"teamB": "Portugal",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 29,
"probDraw": 30,
"probWinB": 41,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Two well-organized sides with strong midfields and tournament pragmatism point to a tight game where Portugal’s top-end talent slightly outweighs Colombia’s cohesion."
},
{
"group": "K",
"teamA": "DR Congo",
"teamB": "Uzbekistan",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 36,
"probDraw": 32,
"probWinB": 32,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "This looks like a stylistic coin-flip—DR Congo’s athletic transitions versus Uzbekistan’s structure—making a low-margin draw the most likely single scoreline."
},
{
"group": "L",
"teamA": "England",
"teamB": "Croatia",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 52,
"probDraw": 26,
"probWinB": 22,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "England’s deeper squad and higher baseline chance creation edge a still-dangerous Croatia that can control phases but is less explosive over 90 minutes."
},
{
"group": "L",
"teamA": "Ghana",
"teamB": "Panama",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 44,
"probDraw": 30,
"probWinB": 26,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Ghana’s individual quality and athleticism give them a narrow edge, but Panama’s compact, set-piece-oriented style keeps draw probability high."
},
{
"group": "L",
"teamA": "England",
"teamB": "Ghana",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 63,
"probDraw": 23,
"probWinB": 14,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "England’s superior ball progression and finishing options should overwhelm Ghana if England avoid transition mistakes and manage game state."
},
{
"group": "L",
"teamA": "Panama",
"teamB": "Croatia",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 18,
"probDraw": 29,
"probWinB": 53,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Croatia’s midfield control and tournament know-how project well against Panama’s low block, with the main risk being a slow, low-event match."
},
{
"group": "L",
"teamA": "Panama",
"teamB": "England",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 12,
"probDraw": 22,
"probWinB": 66,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Even with travel/heat variables, England’s depth and set-piece plus open-play threat should create a clear advantage over Panama."
},
{
"group": "L",
"teamA": "Croatia",
"teamB": "Ghana",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 39,
"probDraw": 32,
"probWinB": 29,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Croatia’s control and experience meet Ghana’s pace and transition threat, making a balanced matchup where a draw is a strong outcome."
}
]
}GeminiBaselineGoogle Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (Gemini CLI, OAuth)Jun 10, 2026, 21:13 UTC · 72 matches
Show JSON output
{
"model": "gemini",
"condition": "baseline",
"predictions": [
{
"group": "A",
"teamA": "Mexico",
"teamB": "South Africa",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 70,
"probDraw": 20,
"probWinB": 10,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Mexico's strong home advantage and superior squad depth make them clear favorites."
},
{
"group": "A",
"teamA": "South Korea",
"teamB": "Czech Republic",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 35,
"probDraw": 30,
"probWinB": 35,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "An evenly matched contest between South Korea's attacking pace and the Czech Republic's organized defense."
},
{
"group": "A",
"teamA": "Czech Republic",
"teamB": "South Africa",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 60,
"probDraw": 25,
"probWinB": 15,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "The Czech Republic's physicality and tactical discipline should overpower a spirited South African side."
},
{
"group": "A",
"teamA": "Mexico",
"teamB": "South Korea",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 55,
"probDraw": 25,
"probWinB": 20,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Home support and high altitude will give Mexico the edge in a tightly contested, high-intensity match."
},
{
"group": "A",
"teamA": "Czech Republic",
"teamB": "Mexico",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 25,
"probDraw": 30,
"probWinB": 45,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Mexico's home advantage and momentum should help them edge out a resilient Czech side in a low-scoring affair."
},
{
"group": "A",
"teamA": "South Africa",
"teamB": "South Korea",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 15,
"probDraw": 25,
"probWinB": 60,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "South Korea's technical superiority and attacking quality will likely prove too much for South Africa's defense."
},
{
"group": "B",
"teamA": "Canada",
"teamB": "Bosnia & Herzegovina",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 45,
"probDraw": 30,
"probWinB": 25,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Canada's host advantage and pace in attack give them a slight edge over an aging Bosnian side."
},
{
"group": "B",
"teamA": "Qatar",
"teamB": "Switzerland",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 10,
"probDraw": 20,
"probWinB": 70,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Switzerland's structural discipline and superior midfield quality should comfortably handle Qatar."
},
{
"group": "B",
"teamA": "Switzerland",
"teamB": "Bosnia & Herzegovina",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 60,
"probDraw": 25,
"probWinB": 15,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "The Swiss have a stronger tactical setup and better recent tournament pedigree against European opposition."
},
{
"group": "B",
"teamA": "Canada",
"teamB": "Qatar",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 60,
"probDraw": 25,
"probWinB": 15,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Canada's dynamic forwards and home crowd support should overwhelm a defensively vulnerable Qatari side."
},
{
"group": "B",
"teamA": "Switzerland",
"teamB": "Canada",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 40,
"probDraw": 35,
"probWinB": 25,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "A tight contest between Switzerland's control and Canada's counter-attacking speed at home, likely ending in a draw."
},
{
"group": "B",
"teamA": "Bosnia & Herzegovina",
"teamB": "Qatar",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 50,
"probDraw": 30,
"probWinB": 20,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Bosnia's physical advantage and European experience should be enough to secure a narrow victory."
},
{
"group": "C",
"teamA": "Brazil",
"teamB": "Morocco",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 60,
"probDraw": 25,
"probWinB": 15,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Brazil's overwhelming attacking talent should eventually breach Morocco's highly organized defense, but it will be a tightly contested tactical affair."
},
{
"group": "C",
"teamA": "Haiti",
"teamB": "Scotland",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 15,
"probDraw": 20,
"probWinB": 65,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Scotland's superior European tactical experience and strong midfield presence will comfortably control the game against a spirited but technically inferior Haitian side."
},
{
"group": "C",
"teamA": "Scotland",
"teamB": "Morocco",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 30,
"probDraw": 35,
"probWinB": 35,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "A tense battle for crucial group points where Scotland's physical intensity effectively neutralizes Morocco's possession, resulting in a cautious stalemate."
},
{
"group": "C",
"teamA": "Brazil",
"teamB": "Haiti",
"scoreA": 4,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 85,
"probDraw": 10,
"probWinB": 5,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "The immense disparity in squad depth, technical quality, and tournament pedigree heavily favors a comfortable multi-goal victory for Brazil."
},
{
"group": "C",
"teamA": "Scotland",
"teamB": "Brazil",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 10,
"probDraw": 20,
"probWinB": 70,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Brazil's fluid attacking rotation and individual brilliance will eventually dismantle Scotland's deep defensive block over the course of 90 minutes."
},
{
"group": "C",
"teamA": "Morocco",
"teamB": "Haiti",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 75,
"probDraw": 15,
"probWinB": 10,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Morocco's technical superiority and defensive solidity will allow them to dictate the tempo and secure necessary progression points without conceding."
},
{
"group": "D",
"teamA": "USA",
"teamB": "Paraguay",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 55,
"probDraw": 28,
"probWinB": 17,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Home advantage and a superior attacking trio give the USA the edge against a resilient but historically low-scoring Paraguayan side."
},
{
"group": "D",
"teamA": "Australia",
"teamB": "Turkey",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 20,
"probDraw": 25,
"probWinB": 55,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Turkey's technical midfield and attacking firepower, led by Calhanoglu and Güler, should overwhelm Australia's disciplined but limited setup."
},
{
"group": "D",
"teamA": "USA",
"teamB": "Australia",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 60,
"probDraw": 25,
"probWinB": 15,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "The USA's athletic midfield and pace out wide will expose Australia in transition, heavily supported by the partisan home crowd."
},
{
"group": "D",
"teamA": "Turkey",
"teamB": "Paraguay",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 40,
"probDraw": 35,
"probWinB": 25,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Paraguay's rugged South American defensive block is notoriously hard to break down, likely frustrating Turkey's creative attackers into a stalemate."
},
{
"group": "D",
"teamA": "Turkey",
"teamB": "USA",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 30,
"probDraw": 35,
"probWinB": 35,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "A high-quality tactical battle where Turkey's superior midfield control is offset by the USA's formidable home-field host advantage, resulting in shared points."
},
{
"group": "D",
"teamA": "Paraguay",
"teamB": "Australia",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 45,
"probDraw": 30,
"probWinB": 25,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "In a tight, physical contest, Paraguay's superior individual difference-makers in the final third should break the deadlock against a stubborn Socceroos side."
},
{
"group": "E",
"teamA": "Germany",
"teamB": "Curaçao",
"scoreA": 4,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 90,
"probDraw": 8,
"probWinB": 2,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Germany's overwhelming tactical discipline and elite squad depth will easily overpower Curaçao's defense."
},
{
"group": "E",
"teamA": "Ivory Coast",
"teamB": "Ecuador",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 35,
"probDraw": 35,
"probWinB": 30,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "A tight, physical match expected between two strong, athletically matched teams with solid midfield structures."
},
{
"group": "E",
"teamA": "Germany",
"teamB": "Ivory Coast",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 65,
"probDraw": 20,
"probWinB": 15,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Germany's technical superiority in the final third should give them a narrow edge over a resilient Ivory Coast."
},
{
"group": "E",
"teamA": "Ecuador",
"teamB": "Curaçao",
"scoreA": 3,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 80,
"probDraw": 15,
"probWinB": 5,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Ecuador's high-intensity pressing and physical strength will prove too much for Curaçao to handle over 90 minutes."
},
{
"group": "E",
"teamA": "Curaçao",
"teamB": "Ivory Coast",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 10,
"probDraw": 20,
"probWinB": 70,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Ivory Coast's experience and attacking firepower will comfortably secure the win against a defensively vulnerable Curaçao."
},
{
"group": "E",
"teamA": "Ecuador",
"teamB": "Germany",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 20,
"probDraw": 25,
"probWinB": 55,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Germany's elite midfield control should ultimately outlast Ecuador's dynamic counter-attacking threats."
},
{
"group": "F",
"teamA": "Netherlands",
"teamB": "Japan",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 55,
"probDraw": 25,
"probWinB": 20,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Netherlands have superior individual quality, but Japan's intense pressing and pace on the counter will keep the match highly competitive."
},
{
"group": "F",
"teamA": "Sweden",
"teamB": "Tunisia",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 50,
"probDraw": 30,
"probWinB": 20,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Sweden's physical presence and set-piece threat should edge a tight, low-scoring encounter against a defensively organized Tunisian side."
},
{
"group": "F",
"teamA": "Netherlands",
"teamB": "Sweden",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 60,
"probDraw": 25,
"probWinB": 15,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "The Dutch tactical fluidity and deeper attacking squad should eventually overwhelm a more rigid and predictable Swedish defense."
},
{
"group": "F",
"teamA": "Tunisia",
"teamB": "Japan",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 25,
"probDraw": 30,
"probWinB": 45,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Japan's technical superiority and quick transitions will likely be the decisive factors in breaking down Tunisia's deep block."
},
{
"group": "F",
"teamA": "Japan",
"teamB": "Sweden",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 35,
"probDraw": 35,
"probWinB": 30,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "A clash of contrasting styles where Japan's agility meets Sweden's physicality, likely resulting in a hard-fought draw as both seek qualification."
},
{
"group": "F",
"teamA": "Tunisia",
"teamB": "Netherlands",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 3,
"probWinA": 10,
"probDraw": 15,
"probWinB": 75,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Netherlands will dominate possession and easily create high-quality chances against an outmatched Tunisia, especially if goal difference matters."
},
{
"group": "G",
"teamA": "Belgium",
"teamB": "Egypt",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 60,
"probDraw": 25,
"probWinB": 15,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Belgium's attacking depth and experience should overcome Egypt's defensive structure, despite Salah's counter-attacking threat."
},
{
"group": "G",
"teamA": "Iran",
"teamB": "New Zealand",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 55,
"probDraw": 30,
"probWinB": 15,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Iran's tactical discipline and superior attacking quality, led by Taremi, should comfortably dismantle a physical but limited New Zealand side."
},
{
"group": "G",
"teamA": "Belgium",
"teamB": "Iran",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 65,
"probDraw": 20,
"probWinB": 15,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Belgium's possession dominance and creative midfield will eventually break down Iran's low block."
},
{
"group": "G",
"teamA": "New Zealand",
"teamB": "Egypt",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 15,
"probDraw": 25,
"probWinB": 60,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Egypt's pace in transition and superior individual talent will be too much for New Zealand's defense to contain over 90 minutes."
},
{
"group": "G",
"teamA": "Egypt",
"teamB": "Iran",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 35,
"probDraw": 35,
"probWinB": 30,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "A highly tactical and cautious match between two well-organized teams likely results in a low-scoring draw."
},
{
"group": "G",
"teamA": "New Zealand",
"teamB": "Belgium",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 3,
"probWinA": 10,
"probDraw": 15,
"probWinB": 75,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "A mismatch in class where Belgium's elite forwards will easily exploit spaces against a struggling New Zealand side."
},
{
"group": "H",
"teamA": "Spain",
"teamB": "Cape Verde",
"scoreA": 3,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 85,
"probDraw": 10,
"probWinB": 5,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Spain's overwhelming technical superiority and depth will easily dismantle Cape Verde's defense."
},
{
"group": "H",
"teamA": "Saudi Arabia",
"teamB": "Uruguay",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 10,
"probDraw": 20,
"probWinB": 70,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Uruguay's intensity, tactical discipline under Bielsa, and elite midfield will overpower Saudi Arabia."
},
{
"group": "H",
"teamA": "Spain",
"teamB": "Saudi Arabia",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 75,
"probDraw": 15,
"probWinB": 10,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Spain will dominate possession and patiently break down the Saudi low block to secure a comfortable win."
},
{
"group": "H",
"teamA": "Uruguay",
"teamB": "Cape Verde",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 80,
"probDraw": 15,
"probWinB": 5,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Uruguay's physical presence and attacking efficiency will be too much for Cape Verde to handle."
},
{
"group": "H",
"teamA": "Cape Verde",
"teamB": "Saudi Arabia",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 30,
"probDraw": 40,
"probWinB": 30,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "A closely contested match between two defensively organized sides, with a draw being the most probable outcome."
},
{
"group": "H",
"teamA": "Uruguay",
"teamB": "Spain",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 30,
"probDraw": 40,
"probWinB": 30,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "A highly tactical clash where Uruguay's high press neutralizes Spain's possession, resulting in a stalemate."
},
{
"group": "I",
"teamA": "France",
"teamB": "Senegal",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 65,
"probDraw": 20,
"probWinB": 15,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "France's superior squad depth and tournament experience should overcome Senegal's athletic defense."
},
{
"group": "I",
"teamA": "Iraq",
"teamB": "Norway",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 15,
"probDraw": 20,
"probWinB": 65,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Norway's elite attacking talent, specifically Haaland and Ødegaard, will be too much for Iraq's organized but outmatched defense."
},
{
"group": "I",
"teamA": "France",
"teamB": "Iraq",
"scoreA": 3,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 85,
"probDraw": 10,
"probWinB": 5,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "A massive gulf in quality across the pitch makes this a comfortable victory for the French side."
},
{
"group": "I",
"teamA": "Norway",
"teamB": "Senegal",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 35,
"probDraw": 30,
"probWinB": 35,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "A tight, competitive matchup where Norway's attacking stars are balanced out by Senegal's physical midfield and solid structure."
},
{
"group": "I",
"teamA": "Norway",
"teamB": "France",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 20,
"probDraw": 25,
"probWinB": 55,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "While Norway can threaten through counters, France has the tactical maturity and quality to control the game and secure the win."
},
{
"group": "I",
"teamA": "Senegal",
"teamB": "Iraq",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 65,
"probDraw": 25,
"probWinB": 10,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Senegal's pace and physicality will eventually break down Iraq's deep block."
},
{
"group": "J",
"teamA": "Argentina",
"teamB": "Algeria",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 75,
"probDraw": 18,
"probWinB": 7,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Argentina's overwhelming midfield control and defensive solidity under Scaloni should easily neutralize Algeria's counter-attacking threats."
},
{
"group": "J",
"teamA": "Austria",
"teamB": "Jordan",
"scoreA": 3,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 70,
"probDraw": 20,
"probWinB": 10,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Austria's relentless gegenpressing system will suffocate Jordan's deep block and force high turnovers leading to multiple scoring chances."
},
{
"group": "J",
"teamA": "Argentina",
"teamB": "Austria",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 55,
"probDraw": 25,
"probWinB": 20,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "While Austria's intensity will test them, Argentina's superior technical ability under pressure and clinical finishing edge the matchup."
},
{
"group": "J",
"teamA": "Jordan",
"teamB": "Algeria",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 15,
"probDraw": 30,
"probWinB": 55,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Algeria possesses superior individual attacking quality, particularly on the wings, to eventually break down Jordan's resilient defensive organization."
},
{
"group": "J",
"teamA": "Algeria",
"teamB": "Austria",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 25,
"probDraw": 30,
"probWinB": 45,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Austria's structural cohesion and intense transition play will expose the defensive vulnerabilities that have recently plagued Algeria in tournament football."
},
{
"group": "J",
"teamA": "Jordan",
"teamB": "Argentina",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 3,
"probWinA": 5,
"probDraw": 15,
"probWinB": 80,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Even with potential squad rotation, Argentina's depth in attacking talent will effortlessly bypass Jordan's defensive lines."
},
{
"group": "K",
"teamA": "Portugal",
"teamB": "DR Congo",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 75,
"probDraw": 18,
"probWinB": 7,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Portugal's superior squad depth and tactical organization easily overwhelm DR Congo's defense."
},
{
"group": "K",
"teamA": "Uzbekistan",
"teamB": "Colombia",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 15,
"probDraw": 25,
"probWinB": 60,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Colombia's attacking talent and tournament experience outmatch Uzbekistan's structured setup."
},
{
"group": "K",
"teamA": "Portugal",
"teamB": "Uzbekistan",
"scoreA": 3,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 82,
"probDraw": 13,
"probWinB": 5,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Portugal's individual brilliance and technical superiority should yield a comfortable victory against Uzbekistan."
},
{
"group": "K",
"teamA": "Colombia",
"teamB": "DR Congo",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 65,
"probDraw": 22,
"probWinB": 13,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Colombia's dynamic midfield will eventually break down DR Congo's resilient physical block."
},
{
"group": "K",
"teamA": "Colombia",
"teamB": "Portugal",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 30,
"probDraw": 35,
"probWinB": 35,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "A tightly contested tactical battle between two top-tier sides likely ends in a balanced draw."
},
{
"group": "K",
"teamA": "DR Congo",
"teamB": "Uzbekistan",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 35,
"probDraw": 35,
"probWinB": 30,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "An evenly matched contest between two teams with contrasting styles fighting for the third spot."
},
{
"group": "L",
"teamA": "England",
"teamB": "Croatia",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 55,
"probDraw": 25,
"probWinB": 20,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "England's superior depth and attacking talent slightly outweigh Croatia's experienced but aging midfield."
},
{
"group": "L",
"teamA": "Ghana",
"teamB": "Panama",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 60,
"probDraw": 25,
"probWinB": 15,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Ghana's individual quality in Europe's top leagues should comfortably overcome Panama's structured setup."
},
{
"group": "L",
"teamA": "England",
"teamB": "Ghana",
"scoreA": 3,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 70,
"probDraw": 20,
"probWinB": 10,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "England's attacking firepower and possession dominance will likely exploit spaces in Ghana's transitional game."
},
{
"group": "L",
"teamA": "Panama",
"teamB": "Croatia",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 10,
"probDraw": 20,
"probWinB": 70,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Croatia's elite midfield control and patient buildup will eventually penetrate Panama's deep defensive block."
},
{
"group": "L",
"teamA": "Panama",
"teamB": "England",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 3,
"probWinA": 5,
"probDraw": 15,
"probWinB": 80,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "The vast disparity in squad value and technical talent across all positions points to a comfortable England victory."
},
{
"group": "L",
"teamA": "Croatia",
"teamB": "Ghana",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 40,
"probDraw": 35,
"probWinB": 25,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "A tightly contested tactical battle where Croatia's possession control is counterbalanced by Ghana's pace and physicality on the break."
}
]
}ClaudeEnrichedClaude Opus 4.8 (API via LiteLLM)Jun 10, 2026, 21:04 UTC · 72 matches
Show JSON output
{
"model": "claude",
"condition": "enriched",
"predictions": [
{
"group": "A",
"teamA": "Mexico",
"teamB": "South Africa",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 64,
"probDraw": 23,
"probWinB": 13,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Host Mexico's altitude and home advantage plus superior squad outweigh South Africa's lowest ranking in the group."
},
{
"group": "A",
"teamA": "South Korea",
"teamB": "Czech Republic",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 41,
"probDraw": 28,
"probWinB": 31,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Korea's higher FIFA ranking and Son-led attack edge a balanced Czech side in a tight contest."
},
{
"group": "A",
"teamA": "Czech Republic",
"teamB": "South Africa",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 47,
"probDraw": 27,
"probWinB": 26,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Czech Elo and European pedigree favor them but South Africa's improving form keeps it competitive."
},
{
"group": "A",
"teamA": "Mexico",
"teamB": "South Korea",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 47,
"probDraw": 27,
"probWinB": 26,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Hosts with altitude and crowd advantage face a strong Korea side, making a close result likely."
},
{
"group": "A",
"teamA": "Czech Republic",
"teamB": "Mexico",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 28,
"probDraw": 28,
"probWinB": 44,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Mexico's higher ranking and tournament quality give them the edge even on a neutral host venue."
},
{
"group": "A",
"teamA": "South Africa",
"teamB": "South Korea",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 28,
"probDraw": 28,
"probWinB": 44,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Korea's superior individual quality and ranking favor them despite South Africa's competitiveness."
},
{
"group": "B",
"teamA": "Canada",
"teamB": "Bosnia & Herzegovina",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 42,
"probDraw": 28,
"probWinB": 30,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Home advantage and Canada's pace edge balance Bosnia's stronger FIFA-ranked individual quality through Dzeko-led attack."
},
{
"group": "B",
"teamA": "Qatar",
"teamB": "Switzerland",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 14,
"probDraw": 22,
"probWinB": 64,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Switzerland's superior Elo (1891 vs 1421) and European depth make Qatar heavy underdogs despite AFC home-continent comfort."
},
{
"group": "B",
"teamA": "Switzerland",
"teamB": "Bosnia & Herzegovina",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 55,
"probDraw": 25,
"probWinB": 20,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Switzerland's tournament pedigree and squad balance outweigh Bosnia's individual flair in a tight UEFA clash."
},
{
"group": "B",
"teamA": "Canada",
"teamB": "Qatar",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 64,
"probDraw": 22,
"probWinB": 14,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Host Canada's higher ranking, athleticism and home crowd should overpower a limited Qatar side."
},
{
"group": "B",
"teamA": "Switzerland",
"teamB": "Canada",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 45,
"probDraw": 28,
"probWinB": 27,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Switzerland's class slightly favored but Canada's home support and counterattacking threat keep this close."
},
{
"group": "B",
"teamA": "Bosnia & Herzegovina",
"teamB": "Qatar",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 60,
"probDraw": 24,
"probWinB": 16,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Bosnia's stronger European attacking quality and ranking edge make them clear favorites over Qatar."
},
{
"group": "C",
"teamA": "Brazil",
"teamB": "Morocco",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 55,
"probDraw": 25,
"probWinB": 20,
"reasoning": "Brazil's superior squad depth and individual quality edge a strong, well-organized Morocco side."
},
{
"group": "C",
"teamA": "Haiti",
"teamB": "Scotland",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 18,
"probDraw": 27,
"probWinB": 55,
"reasoning": "Scotland's higher ranking and European tournament experience outclass debutant-level Haiti."
},
{
"group": "C",
"teamA": "Scotland",
"teamB": "Morocco",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 25,
"probDraw": 28,
"probWinB": 47,
"reasoning": "Morocco's deeper top-tier talent and recent World Cup pedigree give them the advantage."
},
{
"group": "C",
"teamA": "Brazil",
"teamB": "Haiti",
"scoreA": 3,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 88,
"probDraw": 9,
"probWinB": 3,
"reasoning": "Massive gulf in quality makes a comfortable Brazil win highly likely."
},
{
"group": "C",
"teamA": "Scotland",
"teamB": "Brazil",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 18,
"probDraw": 25,
"probWinB": 57,
"reasoning": "Brazil's attacking firepower should overcome a disciplined but limited Scotland."
},
{
"group": "C",
"teamA": "Morocco",
"teamB": "Haiti",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 78,
"probDraw": 16,
"probWinB": 6,
"reasoning": "Morocco's class and organization should comfortably control the weakest side in the group."
},
{
"group": "D",
"teamA": "USA",
"teamB": "Paraguay",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 40,
"probDraw": 30,
"probWinB": 30,
"reasoning": "Home advantage for the hosts offsets Paraguay's higher Elo and defensive solidity.",
"confidence": "low"
},
{
"group": "D",
"teamA": "Australia",
"teamB": "Turkey",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 27,
"probDraw": 28,
"probWinB": 45,
"reasoning": "Turkey's superior individual quality and top Elo rating make them favorites.",
"confidence": "medium"
},
{
"group": "D",
"teamA": "USA",
"teamB": "Australia",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 45,
"probDraw": 28,
"probWinB": 27,
"reasoning": "Home crowd and slightly better attacking talent give the USA the edge over a disciplined Australia.",
"confidence": "low"
},
{
"group": "D",
"teamA": "Turkey",
"teamB": "Paraguay",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 42,
"probDraw": 30,
"probWinB": 28,
"reasoning": "Turkey's creativity edges Paraguay but the South Americans' organization keeps it close.",
"confidence": "low"
},
{
"group": "D",
"teamA": "Turkey",
"teamB": "USA",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 40,
"probDraw": 29,
"probWinB": 31,
"reasoning": "Turkey's top rating versus USA home support makes this a near toss-up.",
"confidence": "low"
},
{
"group": "D",
"teamA": "Paraguay",
"teamB": "Australia",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 40,
"probDraw": 31,
"probWinB": 29,
"reasoning": "Paraguay's higher Elo and physical balance slightly outweigh Australia's structured play.",
"confidence": "low"
},
{
"group": "E",
"teamA": "Germany",
"teamB": "Curaçao",
"scoreA": 3,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 88,
"probDraw": 9,
"probWinB": 3,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Germany's vastly superior squad depth and quality overwhelm the lowest-ranked side in the group."
},
{
"group": "E",
"teamA": "Ivory Coast",
"teamB": "Ecuador",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 31,
"probDraw": 31,
"probWinB": 38,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Ecuador's higher Elo and solid defensive structure narrowly edge a strong, athletic Ivory Coast in a tight matchup."
},
{
"group": "E",
"teamA": "Germany",
"teamB": "Ivory Coast",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 68,
"probDraw": 20,
"probWinB": 12,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Germany's class and FIFA-ranking gap should prevail despite Ivory Coast's physicality and pace on the counter."
},
{
"group": "E",
"teamA": "Ecuador",
"teamB": "Curaçao",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 74,
"probDraw": 18,
"probWinB": 8,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Ecuador's organized defense and CONMEBOL pedigree clearly outclass Curaçao."
},
{
"group": "E",
"teamA": "Curaçao",
"teamB": "Ivory Coast",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 11,
"probDraw": 20,
"probWinB": 69,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Ivory Coast's superior individual quality and athleticism should comfortably beat Curaçao."
},
{
"group": "E",
"teamA": "Ecuador",
"teamB": "Germany",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 28,
"probDraw": 28,
"probWinB": 44,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Germany's elite quality favors them, though Ecuador's strong Elo and resilience make an upset or draw plausible."
},
{
"group": "F",
"teamA": "Netherlands",
"teamB": "Japan",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 50,
"probDraw": 27,
"probWinB": 23,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Netherlands' superior squad depth and individual quality edge a dangerous, well-organized Japan side."
},
{
"group": "F",
"teamA": "Sweden",
"teamB": "Tunisia",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 43,
"probDraw": 30,
"probWinB": 27,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Sweden's attacking talent slightly favors them but Tunisia's defensive discipline keeps it tight."
},
{
"group": "F",
"teamA": "Netherlands",
"teamB": "Sweden",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 58,
"probDraw": 25,
"probWinB": 17,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Netherlands' higher FIFA ranking and Elo plus deeper quality make them clear favorites."
},
{
"group": "F",
"teamA": "Tunisia",
"teamB": "Japan",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 24,
"probDraw": 28,
"probWinB": 48,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Japan's technical superiority and pace outmatch a defensive Tunisia despite likely heat."
},
{
"group": "F",
"teamA": "Japan",
"teamB": "Sweden",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 48,
"probDraw": 27,
"probWinB": 25,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Japan's mobility and cohesion give them the edge over a physical but slower Sweden."
},
{
"group": "F",
"teamA": "Tunisia",
"teamB": "Netherlands",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 18,
"probDraw": 26,
"probWinB": 56,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Netherlands' clear talent gap and attacking firepower should overcome Tunisia's organization."
},
{
"group": "G",
"teamA": "Belgium",
"teamB": "Egypt",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 64,
"probDraw": 23,
"probWinB": 13,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Belgium's superior squad depth and individual quality outweigh Egypt's Salah-led threat."
},
{
"group": "G",
"teamA": "Iran",
"teamB": "New Zealand",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 62,
"probDraw": 24,
"probWinB": 14,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Iran's organized defense and higher ranking favor them over a physical but lower-quality New Zealand."
},
{
"group": "G",
"teamA": "Belgium",
"teamB": "Iran",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 52,
"probDraw": 28,
"probWinB": 20,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Belgium are favored but Iran's compact, disciplined setup can frustrate and grab a point."
},
{
"group": "G",
"teamA": "New Zealand",
"teamB": "Egypt",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 27,
"probDraw": 30,
"probWinB": 43,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Egypt's individual quality, especially Salah, edges a competitive but limited New Zealand."
},
{
"group": "G",
"teamA": "Egypt",
"teamB": "Iran",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 35,
"probDraw": 32,
"probWinB": 33,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Two evenly matched, defensively solid sides likely cancel out in a tight contest."
},
{
"group": "G",
"teamA": "New Zealand",
"teamB": "Belgium",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 11,
"probDraw": 21,
"probWinB": 68,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Belgium's clear talent gap should produce a comfortable win over New Zealand."
},
{
"group": "H",
"teamA": "Spain",
"teamB": "Cape Verde",
"scoreA": 3,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 86,
"probDraw": 10,
"probWinB": 4,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Spain's elite squad and far superior ratings overwhelm a spirited but lower-tier Cape Verde side."
},
{
"group": "H",
"teamA": "Saudi Arabia",
"teamB": "Uruguay",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 18,
"probDraw": 26,
"probWinB": 56,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Uruguay's quality and experience under a strong attack outclass Saudi Arabia despite their organization."
},
{
"group": "H",
"teamA": "Spain",
"teamB": "Saudi Arabia",
"scoreA": 3,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 85,
"probDraw": 11,
"probWinB": 4,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Spain's dominance in possession and finishing should comfortably break down Saudi Arabia."
},
{
"group": "H",
"teamA": "Uruguay",
"teamB": "Cape Verde",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 68,
"probDraw": 22,
"probWinB": 10,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Uruguay's depth and tournament pedigree give them a clear edge over Cape Verde."
},
{
"group": "H",
"teamA": "Cape Verde",
"teamB": "Saudi Arabia",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 36,
"probDraw": 30,
"probWinB": 34,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Nearly identical ratings make this the group's most evenly matched, likely decisive fixture for third place."
},
{
"group": "H",
"teamA": "Uruguay",
"teamB": "Spain",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 24,
"probDraw": 27,
"probWinB": 49,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Spain's superior overall quality edges a competitive Uruguay side in the group's marquee clash."
},
{
"group": "I",
"teamA": "France",
"teamB": "Senegal",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 55,
"probDraw": 25,
"probWinB": 20,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "France's superior squad depth and individual quality edge a strong, physical Senegal side."
},
{
"group": "I",
"teamA": "Iraq",
"teamB": "Norway",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 22,
"probDraw": 26,
"probWinB": 52,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Norway's firepower with Haaland and Odegaard outclasses a lower-ranked Iraq."
},
{
"group": "I",
"teamA": "France",
"teamB": "Iraq",
"scoreA": 3,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 80,
"probDraw": 14,
"probWinB": 6,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Huge gap in squad quality and ranking heavily favors France."
},
{
"group": "I",
"teamA": "Norway",
"teamB": "Senegal",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 38,
"probDraw": 28,
"probWinB": 34,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Evenly matched sides with Norway's attack against Senegal's athletic balance."
},
{
"group": "I",
"teamA": "Norway",
"teamB": "France",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 24,
"probDraw": 26,
"probWinB": 50,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "France's depth and tournament pedigree outweigh Norway's star duo."
},
{
"group": "I",
"teamA": "Senegal",
"teamB": "Iraq",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 65,
"probDraw": 23,
"probWinB": 12,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Senegal's stronger squad and ranking should control this matchup."
},
{
"group": "J",
"teamA": "Argentina",
"teamB": "Algeria",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 74,
"probDraw": 18,
"probWinB": 8,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Argentina's world-class squad and top-3 ranking heavily outclass Algeria despite Algeria's solid CAF pedigree."
},
{
"group": "J",
"teamA": "Austria",
"teamB": "Jordan",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 62,
"probDraw": 24,
"probWinB": 14,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Austria's higher ranking and stronger European-based core should overcome a disciplined but limited Jordan side."
},
{
"group": "J",
"teamA": "Argentina",
"teamB": "Austria",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 68,
"probDraw": 21,
"probWinB": 11,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Argentina's individual quality and tournament experience give them a clear edge over an organized Austria."
},
{
"group": "J",
"teamA": "Jordan",
"teamB": "Algeria",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 28,
"probDraw": 31,
"probWinB": 41,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Algeria's superior ranking and attacking talent edge a competitive but closely matched fixture."
},
{
"group": "J",
"teamA": "Algeria",
"teamB": "Austria",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 35,
"probDraw": 29,
"probWinB": 36,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Closely rated sides with Austria's depth balanced against Algeria's flair make this a near coin-flip."
},
{
"group": "J",
"teamA": "Jordan",
"teamB": "Argentina",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 3,
"probWinA": 6,
"probDraw": 14,
"probWinB": 80,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Argentina's elite quality should comfortably overwhelm the lowest-ranked team in the group."
},
{
"group": "K",
"teamA": "Portugal",
"teamB": "DR Congo",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 72,
"probDraw": 19,
"probWinB": 9,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Portugal's superior squad depth and individual quality should overcome a physical DR Congo side."
},
{
"group": "K",
"teamA": "Uzbekistan",
"teamB": "Colombia",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 22,
"probDraw": 26,
"probWinB": 52,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Colombia's attacking talent and higher ceiling outweigh Uzbekistan's organized but less dynamic setup."
},
{
"group": "K",
"teamA": "Portugal",
"teamB": "Uzbekistan",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 74,
"probDraw": 18,
"probWinB": 8,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Portugal's elite firepower should break down Uzbekistan's compact defense over 90 minutes."
},
{
"group": "K",
"teamA": "Colombia",
"teamB": "DR Congo",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 58,
"probDraw": 24,
"probWinB": 18,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Colombia's creative midfield and finishing edge them ahead of an athletic DR Congo."
},
{
"group": "K",
"teamA": "Colombia",
"teamB": "Portugal",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 30,
"probDraw": 28,
"probWinB": 42,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Two elite-level sides with similar Elo, but Portugal's overall depth gives a slight edge."
},
{
"group": "K",
"teamA": "DR Congo",
"teamB": "Uzbekistan",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 37,
"probDraw": 30,
"probWinB": 33,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Closely matched mid-tier sides with comparable ratings make this the group's most open fixture."
},
{
"group": "L",
"teamA": "England",
"teamB": "Croatia",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 50,
"probDraw": 28,
"probWinB": 22,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "England's superior squad depth and higher ratings edge an aging but tactically smart Croatia."
},
{
"group": "L",
"teamA": "Ghana",
"teamB": "Panama",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 38,
"probDraw": 30,
"probWinB": 32,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Closely matched sides with Ghana's individual talent offset by Panama's organization and higher ranking."
},
{
"group": "L",
"teamA": "England",
"teamB": "Ghana",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 72,
"probDraw": 18,
"probWinB": 10,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Significant gap in squad quality and ratings strongly favors England."
},
{
"group": "L",
"teamA": "Panama",
"teamB": "Croatia",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 26,
"probDraw": 28,
"probWinB": 46,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Croatia's experienced core and technical superiority should overcome Panama despite the underdog's resilience."
},
{
"group": "L",
"teamA": "Panama",
"teamB": "England",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 12,
"probDraw": 20,
"probWinB": 68,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "England's attacking quality and depth make them clear favorites over Panama."
},
{
"group": "L",
"teamA": "Croatia",
"teamB": "Ghana",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 55,
"probDraw": 25,
"probWinB": 20,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Croatia's midfield control and tournament pedigree outweigh Ghana's pace and physicality."
}
]
}OpenAIEnrichedOpenAI GPT-5.2 (API via LiteLLM)Jun 10, 2026, 21:04 UTC · 72 matches
Show JSON output
{
"model": "openai",
"condition": "enriched",
"predictions": [
{
"group": "A",
"teamA": "Mexico",
"teamB": "South Africa",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 64,
"probDraw": 23,
"probWinB": 13,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Mexico have a clear Elo edge plus strong host-context benefits (familiar conditions, crowd, reduced travel) against a South Africa side that tends to struggle for chance creation versus top-20-level opponents."
},
{
"group": "A",
"teamA": "South Korea",
"teamB": "Czech Republic",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 36,
"probDraw": 30,
"probWinB": 34,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "The Elo gap is marginal and the matchup pits Korea’s pace/pressing transitions against Czech physicality and set-piece threat, making a draw the modal outcome."
},
{
"group": "A",
"teamA": "Czech Republic",
"teamB": "South Africa",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 55,
"probDraw": 27,
"probWinB": 18,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Czech Republic’s higher baseline quality (Elo) and more reliable defensive structure/box presence should edge a low-scoring game versus South Africa."
},
{
"group": "A",
"teamA": "Mexico",
"teamB": "South Korea",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 42,
"probDraw": 30,
"probWinB": 28,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Mexico rate higher and benefit from home conditions, but South Korea’s athletic pressing and direct wide play can neutralize possession-heavy phases and pull this toward a draw."
},
{
"group": "A",
"teamA": "Czech Republic",
"teamB": "Mexico",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 30,
"probDraw": 29,
"probWinB": 41,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "On ratings this is close, but Mexico’s stronger Elo and tournament-host context slightly outweigh Czech set-piece strengths in a tight, swingy matchup."
},
{
"group": "A",
"teamA": "South Africa",
"teamB": "South Korea",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 22,
"probDraw": 29,
"probWinB": 49,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "South Korea’s sizable Elo advantage and superior attacking pace/ball progression should translate into more high-quality chances even if South Africa keep it compact."
},
{
"group": "B",
"teamA": "Canada",
"teamB": "Bosnia & Herzegovina",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 48,
"probDraw": 30,
"probWinB": 22,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Canada’s higher Elo and strong transition play plus host-region conditions give them an edge over a lower-rated Bosnia side that can struggle to create chances without control."
},
{
"group": "B",
"teamA": "Qatar",
"teamB": "Switzerland",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 12,
"probDraw": 23,
"probWinB": 65,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Switzerland’s large Elo gap and tactical consistency should translate into territorial control and chance quality against a Qatar team that tends to suffer versus intense pressing."
},
{
"group": "B",
"teamA": "Switzerland",
"teamB": "Bosnia & Herzegovina",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 62,
"probDraw": 24,
"probWinB": 14,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Switzerland’s superior midfield structure and defensive reliability, supported by a big ratings advantage, make them strong favorites to limit Bosnia’s scoring looks."
},
{
"group": "B",
"teamA": "Canada",
"teamB": "Qatar",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 63,
"probDraw": 23,
"probWinB": 14,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Canada’s pace and athleticism match up well against Qatar’s deeper block, and the Elo differential points to Canada generating more high-value transitions and set-piece pressure."
},
{
"group": "B",
"teamA": "Switzerland",
"teamB": "Canada",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 45,
"probDraw": 29,
"probWinB": 26,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Switzerland are the stronger side on ratings, but Canada’s direct threat and tournament-venue familiarity increase upset/draw probability in a matchup of contrasting styles."
},
{
"group": "B",
"teamA": "Bosnia & Herzegovina",
"teamB": "Qatar",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 43,
"probDraw": 31,
"probWinB": 26,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Bosnia’s higher Elo and set-piece/box presence give a slight edge, but both teams project as low-margin attacks so a draw is a major outcome."
},
{
"group": "C",
"teamA": "Brazil",
"teamB": "Morocco",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 56,
"probDraw": 24,
"probWinB": 20,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Brazil’s superior top-end talent and Elo edge should tell over 90 minutes, but Morocco’s cohesive pressing/transition game keeps upset and draw chances meaningful."
},
{
"group": "C",
"teamA": "Haiti",
"teamB": "Scotland",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 17,
"probDraw": 24,
"probWinB": 59,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Scotland’s higher Elo and stronger defensive structure/physicality profile make them clear favorites against a Haiti side that can be dangerous in bursts but concedes chances."
},
{
"group": "C",
"teamA": "Scotland",
"teamB": "Morocco",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 28,
"probDraw": 34,
"probWinB": 38,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Morocco rate slightly higher on both FIFA and Elo and are more dynamic in wide/transition phases, but Scotland’s set-piece threat and compact block raise the draw likelihood."
},
{
"group": "C",
"teamA": "Brazil",
"teamB": "Haiti",
"scoreA": 3,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 82,
"probDraw": 12,
"probWinB": 6,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "The Elo gap and Brazil’s depth across every line point to sustained chance creation and control, with Haiti unlikely to withstand pressure for long."
},
{
"group": "C",
"teamA": "Scotland",
"teamB": "Brazil",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 12,
"probDraw": 21,
"probWinB": 67,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Brazil’s quality advantage and ability to break low blocks through individual actions should outweigh Scotland’s organization, though tournament game-state management can keep it tight early."
},
{
"group": "C",
"teamA": "Morocco",
"teamB": "Haiti",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 69,
"probDraw": 20,
"probWinB": 11,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Morocco’s stronger Elo, pressing intensity, and defensive consistency make them solid favorites, with Haiti’s main path relying on counterattacks and variance."
},
{
"group": "D",
"teamA": "USA",
"teamB": "Paraguay",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 31,
"probDraw": 30,
"probWinB": 39,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Paraguay’s substantially higher Elo suggests a slight edge, but the USA’s host-context and athletic pressing profile make a draw very live."
},
{
"group": "D",
"teamA": "Australia",
"teamB": "Turkey",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 24,
"probDraw": 28,
"probWinB": 48,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Turkey’s clear Elo advantage points to more control and chance volume, while Australia’s organization keeps it tight."
},
{
"group": "D",
"teamA": "USA",
"teamB": "Australia",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 44,
"probDraw": 28,
"probWinB": 28,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "On similar overall levels, the USA’s home advantage and higher-end attacking pace tilt a close game their way."
},
{
"group": "D",
"teamA": "Turkey",
"teamB": "Paraguay",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 40,
"probDraw": 30,
"probWinB": 30,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Elo favors Turkey but Paraguay’s defensive structure and transition threat often neutralize possession-heavy opponents."
},
{
"group": "D",
"teamA": "Turkey",
"teamB": "USA",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 49,
"probDraw": 27,
"probWinB": 24,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Turkey’s Elo and technical midfield quality give them the stronger baseline, with the USA dangerous but more variable in chance conversion."
},
{
"group": "D",
"teamA": "Paraguay",
"teamB": "Australia",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 46,
"probDraw": 30,
"probWinB": 24,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Paraguay’s higher Elo and typically compact, duel-winning style match up well against Australia’s direct approach."
},
{
"group": "E",
"teamA": "Germany",
"teamB": "Curaçao",
"scoreA": 3,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 86,
"probDraw": 10,
"probWinB": 4,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Germany’s much higher Elo and depth should overwhelm Curaçao over 90 minutes, especially in chance creation and set-piece defending."
},
{
"group": "E",
"teamA": "Ivory Coast",
"teamB": "Ecuador",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 30,
"probDraw": 27,
"probWinB": 43,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Ecuador’s very strong Elo profile and cohesive pressing/transition game give them a narrow edge over an athletic but more variable Ivory Coast."
},
{
"group": "E",
"teamA": "Germany",
"teamB": "Ivory Coast",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 55,
"probDraw": 25,
"probWinB": 20,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Germany’s control in possession and deeper bench rate slightly better than Ivory Coast’s direct threat, though the matchup is physically demanding."
},
{
"group": "E",
"teamA": "Ecuador",
"teamB": "Curaçao",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 74,
"probDraw": 18,
"probWinB": 8,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Ecuador’s large Elo gap plus intensity without the ball should limit Curaçao’s buildup and produce a multi-chance advantage."
},
{
"group": "E",
"teamA": "Curaçao",
"teamB": "Ivory Coast",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 12,
"probDraw": 20,
"probWinB": 68,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Ivory Coast’s superior athleticism and individual quality across the front line should translate into clear chances against a lower-rated defense."
},
{
"group": "E",
"teamA": "Ecuador",
"teamB": "Germany",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 34,
"probDraw": 31,
"probWinB": 35,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "With near-equal Elo, this profiles as a tight game where Ecuador’s transitions and Germany’s possession control balance out, making a draw most likely."
},
{
"group": "F",
"teamA": "Netherlands",
"teamB": "Japan",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 45,
"probDraw": 28,
"probWinB": 27,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Netherlands have the higher overall talent level and stronger top-end physicality, but Japan’s high-tempo press and strong Elo keep it close."
},
{
"group": "F",
"teamA": "Sweden",
"teamB": "Tunisia",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 48,
"probDraw": 31,
"probWinB": 21,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Sweden’s set-piece threat and defensive structure rate above Tunisia’s chance creation, though Tunisia’s compactness makes a low-scoring game likely."
},
{
"group": "F",
"teamA": "Netherlands",
"teamB": "Sweden",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 62,
"probDraw": 24,
"probWinB": 14,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "A large Elo gap and Netherlands’ superior progression/finishing quality point to control of territory and chances against a slower Swedish buildup."
},
{
"group": "F",
"teamA": "Tunisia",
"teamB": "Japan",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 21,
"probDraw": 30,
"probWinB": 49,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Japan’s midfield intensity and ball security should generate more sustained pressure than Tunisia can match, even if Tunisia keep it tight defensively."
},
{
"group": "F",
"teamA": "Japan",
"teamB": "Sweden",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 38,
"probDraw": 33,
"probWinB": 29,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Japan’s pressing and technical edge are counterbalanced by Sweden’s aerial and transition danger, making a balanced draw the modal outcome."
},
{
"group": "F",
"teamA": "Tunisia",
"teamB": "Netherlands",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 12,
"probDraw": 23,
"probWinB": 65,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Netherlands’ significant quality advantage and ability to break mid/low blocks should prevail over Tunisia’s defensive organization in a controlled away win."
},
{
"group": "G",
"teamA": "Belgium",
"teamB": "Egypt",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 63,
"probDraw": 23,
"probWinB": 14,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Belgium’s higher Elo and deeper top-end attacking quality make them clear favorites against an Egypt side that can defend but creates fewer high-quality chances."
},
{
"group": "G",
"teamA": "Iran",
"teamB": "New Zealand",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 56,
"probDraw": 28,
"probWinB": 16,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Iran’s stronger Elo and generally more cohesive tournament-tested defensive structure should edge a low-scoring game versus New Zealand."
},
{
"group": "G",
"teamA": "Belgium",
"teamB": "Iran",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 57,
"probDraw": 24,
"probWinB": 19,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Belgium’s possession and chance-creation ceiling is higher, while Iran’s compact block and transition threat keeps the upset probability non-trivial."
},
{
"group": "G",
"teamA": "New Zealand",
"teamB": "Egypt",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 18,
"probDraw": 30,
"probWinB": 52,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Egypt’s rating edge and greater individual quality in the final third should be decisive against a New Zealand side that often struggles to generate sustained pressure."
},
{
"group": "G",
"teamA": "Egypt",
"teamB": "Iran",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 31,
"probDraw": 34,
"probWinB": 35,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "The teams are close in overall strength (Iran slightly higher Elo) and both tend toward controlled, defense-first game states, making a draw the modal outcome."
},
{
"group": "G",
"teamA": "New Zealand",
"teamB": "Belgium",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 10,
"probDraw": 20,
"probWinB": 70,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "The large Elo gap plus Belgium’s superior depth and ability to break down lower blocks points strongly to a Belgium win even allowing for tournament variance."
},
{
"group": "H",
"teamA": "Spain",
"teamB": "Cape Verde",
"scoreA": 3,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 86,
"probDraw": 10,
"probWinB": 4,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Spain’s large Elo/FIFA edge and possession-based control should overwhelm Cape Verde over 90 minutes barring extreme heat/variance."
},
{
"group": "H",
"teamA": "Saudi Arabia",
"teamB": "Uruguay",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 20,
"probDraw": 24,
"probWinB": 56,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Uruguay’s higher Elo and superior duel/transition quality make them favorites, though Saudi’s compact low block can keep it close."
},
{
"group": "H",
"teamA": "Spain",
"teamB": "Saudi Arabia",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 78,
"probDraw": 16,
"probWinB": 6,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Spain’s technical dominance and chance creation rate should break down Saudi Arabia more consistently than Saudi can threaten in possession."
},
{
"group": "H",
"teamA": "Uruguay",
"teamB": "Cape Verde",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 74,
"probDraw": 19,
"probWinB": 7,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Uruguay’s athleticism and set-piece/box presence plus a big Elo gap point to a controlled win even if Cape Verde defend deep."
},
{
"group": "H",
"teamA": "Cape Verde",
"teamB": "Saudi Arabia",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 28,
"probDraw": 33,
"probWinB": 39,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "With near-identical Elo ratings, this profiles as a tight, low-margin match where tactical discipline and set pieces likely decide little."
},
{
"group": "H",
"teamA": "Uruguay",
"teamB": "Spain",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 26,
"probDraw": 27,
"probWinB": 47,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Spain’s higher Elo and ball control give them the edge, but Uruguay’s pressing and direct transitions keep draw/upset chances meaningful."
},
{
"group": "I",
"teamA": "France",
"teamB": "Senegal",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 62,
"probDraw": 23,
"probWinB": 15,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "France’s elite depth and top-end quality (FIFA #1, Elo 2063) should edge a physically strong Senegal side, but Senegal’s pace/press keeps it competitive."
},
{
"group": "I",
"teamA": "Iraq",
"teamB": "Norway",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 14,
"probDraw": 24,
"probWinB": 62,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Norway’s clear rating edge (Elo 1914 vs 1607) and superior attacking individual quality make them strong favorites against Iraq."
},
{
"group": "I",
"teamA": "France",
"teamB": "Iraq",
"scoreA": 3,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 78,
"probDraw": 16,
"probWinB": 6,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "This is a pronounced mismatch on both rankings and depth, with France able to control territory and create high-quality chances consistently."
},
{
"group": "I",
"teamA": "Norway",
"teamB": "Senegal",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 34,
"probDraw": 30,
"probWinB": 36,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "A near coin-flip matchup: Norway’s higher Elo is offset by Senegal’s athleticism and transitions, making a draw slightly the modal outcome."
},
{
"group": "I",
"teamA": "Norway",
"teamB": "France",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 18,
"probDraw": 24,
"probWinB": 58,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "France’s overall quality and tournament know-how outweigh Norway’s threat, though Norway’s direct attacking can keep it close."
},
{
"group": "I",
"teamA": "Senegal",
"teamB": "Iraq",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 64,
"probDraw": 23,
"probWinB": 13,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Senegal’s physical edge and higher baseline strength (FIFA 14, Elo 1860) should translate into territory and chances against Iraq."
},
{
"group": "J",
"teamA": "Argentina",
"teamB": "Algeria",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 74,
"probDraw": 18,
"probWinB": 8,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Argentina’s large Elo edge and deeper elite talent base should translate into territorial control and chance volume against an Algeria side that struggles to sustain possession versus top teams."
},
{
"group": "J",
"teamA": "Austria",
"teamB": "Jordan",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 56,
"probDraw": 26,
"probWinB": 18,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Austria’s higher Elo and more proven top-level intensity in pressing/transition phases make them favorites, though Jordan’s compact defending keeps the draw live."
},
{
"group": "J",
"teamA": "Argentina",
"teamB": "Austria",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 64,
"probDraw": 22,
"probWinB": 14,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Argentina’s superior individual quality and game management in tournament settings outweigh Austria’s organization and athleticism, especially over 90 minutes."
},
{
"group": "J",
"teamA": "Jordan",
"teamB": "Algeria",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 25,
"probDraw": 33,
"probWinB": 42,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Algeria’s stronger Elo and attack depth give them more ways to score, but Jordan’s low-block discipline and set-piece threat push this toward a tight, draw-prone game."
},
{
"group": "J",
"teamA": "Algeria",
"teamB": "Austria",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 30,
"probDraw": 32,
"probWinB": 38,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Austria have a modest Elo advantage and typically create more high-quality transitions, but Algeria’s physicality and wing play can neutralize and create a stalemate."
},
{
"group": "J",
"teamA": "Jordan",
"teamB": "Argentina",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 7,
"probDraw": 16,
"probWinB": 77,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "The Elo gap and Argentina’s superior control in possession plus defensive structure make an Argentina win the dominant outcome even if Jordan defend deep."
},
{
"group": "K",
"teamA": "Portugal",
"teamB": "DR Congo",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 72,
"probDraw": 19,
"probWinB": 9,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Portugal’s large Elo edge and deeper squad quality should translate into sustained chance volume and territorial control over 90 minutes."
},
{
"group": "K",
"teamA": "Uzbekistan",
"teamB": "Colombia",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 18,
"probDraw": 27,
"probWinB": 55,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Colombia’s higher Elo and stronger pressing/transition profiles make them likelier to create the decisive moments even if Uzbekistan keep it compact."
},
{
"group": "K",
"teamA": "Portugal",
"teamB": "Uzbekistan",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 69,
"probDraw": 21,
"probWinB": 10,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "The talent gap plus Portugal’s ability to break down mid/low blocks with wide quality and set pieces points to a controlled win."
},
{
"group": "K",
"teamA": "Colombia",
"teamB": "DR Congo",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 63,
"probDraw": 22,
"probWinB": 15,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Colombia’s superior midfield balance and chance creation should outweigh DR Congo’s athleticism and counter threat."
},
{
"group": "K",
"teamA": "Colombia",
"teamB": "Portugal",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 28,
"probDraw": 30,
"probWinB": 42,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "With near-equal Elo, this profiles as tight and tactical, with Portugal slightly more likely to edge it but a draw the single most likely outcome."
},
{
"group": "K",
"teamA": "DR Congo",
"teamB": "Uzbekistan",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 31,
"probDraw": 33,
"probWinB": 36,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "The Elo gap is modest and styles clash (DR Congo direct/physical vs Uzbekistan structured), making a low-margin draw or one-goal game most probable."
},
{
"group": "L",
"teamA": "England",
"teamB": "Croatia",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 53,
"probDraw": 26,
"probWinB": 21,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "England’s higher Elo/squad depth and ball-winning midfield edge Croatia, though Croatia’s midfield control keeps draw/one-goal outcomes live."
},
{
"group": "L",
"teamA": "Ghana",
"teamB": "Panama",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 31,
"probDraw": 30,
"probWinB": 39,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Panama’s notably higher Elo and recent CONCACAF consistency slightly outweigh Ghana’s athleticism and transition threat in a tight matchup."
},
{
"group": "L",
"teamA": "England",
"teamB": "Ghana",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 66,
"probDraw": 22,
"probWinB": 12,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "The Elo/FIFA gap plus England’s defensive structure against direct play makes an England win the modal result barring finishing variance."
},
{
"group": "L",
"teamA": "Panama",
"teamB": "Croatia",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 22,
"probDraw": 27,
"probWinB": 51,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Croatia’s superior technical quality and game management (Elo + experience) should tell over 90 minutes despite Panama’s compact, physical style."
},
{
"group": "L",
"teamA": "Panama",
"teamB": "England",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 13,
"probDraw": 21,
"probWinB": 66,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "England’s large Elo advantage and attacking depth against low blocks projects a controlled away win even with CONCACAF travel/conditions."
},
{
"group": "L",
"teamA": "Croatia",
"teamB": "Ghana",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 55,
"probDraw": 28,
"probWinB": 17,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Croatia’s midfield control and tactical discipline are a strong counter to Ghana’s transition game, making a low-scoring Croatia win most likely."
}
]
}GeminiEnrichedGoogle Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (Gemini CLI, OAuth)Jun 10, 2026, 21:13 UTC · 72 matches
Show JSON output
{
"model": "gemini",
"condition": "enriched",
"predictions": [
{
"group": "A",
"teamA": "Mexico",
"teamB": "South Africa",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 72,
"probDraw": 18,
"probWinB": 10,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Mexico's formidable home advantage combined with a significant Elo rating superiority gives them clear control over South Africa."
},
{
"group": "A",
"teamA": "South Korea",
"teamB": "Czech Republic",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 36,
"probDraw": 32,
"probWinB": 32,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "A very tight matchup between two evenly rated teams where South Korea's attacking pace meets the Czech Republic's structured defense, likely resulting in a draw."
},
{
"group": "A",
"teamA": "Czech Republic",
"teamB": "South Africa",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 65,
"probDraw": 22,
"probWinB": 13,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "The Czechs' physical and tactical edge over South Africa should be enough to secure a comfortable victory."
},
{
"group": "A",
"teamA": "Mexico",
"teamB": "South Korea",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 55,
"probDraw": 25,
"probWinB": 20,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "South Korea poses a transitional threat, but Mexico's home conditions and historical resilience in the group stage edge the prediction in their favor."
},
{
"group": "A",
"teamA": "Czech Republic",
"teamB": "Mexico",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 22,
"probDraw": 28,
"probWinB": 50,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Operating as the de facto away team against the co-hosts, the Czech Republic will struggle to contain Mexico's intensity in front of a partisan crowd."
},
{
"group": "A",
"teamA": "South Africa",
"teamB": "South Korea",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 12,
"probDraw": 23,
"probWinB": 65,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "South Korea's technical superiority and attacking firepower heavily outweigh South Africa's defensive capabilities."
},
{
"group": "B",
"teamA": "Canada",
"teamB": "Bosnia & Herzegovina",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 60,
"probDraw": 25,
"probWinB": 15,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Canada's athletic attack combined with home advantage should overcome a declining Bosnian side."
},
{
"group": "B",
"teamA": "Qatar",
"teamB": "Switzerland",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 3,
"probWinA": 10,
"probDraw": 20,
"probWinB": 70,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Switzerland's structural discipline and superior Elo rating make them heavy favorites against a vulnerable Qatar defense."
},
{
"group": "B",
"teamA": "Switzerland",
"teamB": "Bosnia & Herzegovina",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 65,
"probDraw": 20,
"probWinB": 15,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Swiss midfield control and major tournament experience give them a clear edge over an inconsistent Bosnia."
},
{
"group": "B",
"teamA": "Canada",
"teamB": "Qatar",
"scoreA": 3,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 65,
"probDraw": 20,
"probWinB": 15,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Canada's pace in transition will be too much for Qatar, especially playing on home soil."
},
{
"group": "B",
"teamA": "Switzerland",
"teamB": "Canada",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 40,
"probDraw": 35,
"probWinB": 25,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "A tight tactical battle between the group's best teams, with Canada's host energy balancing Swiss quality."
},
{
"group": "B",
"teamA": "Bosnia & Herzegovina",
"teamB": "Qatar",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 45,
"probDraw": 30,
"probWinB": 25,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "A closely matched contest, but Bosnia's physicality and European pedigree give them a slight advantage."
},
{
"group": "C",
"teamA": "Brazil",
"teamB": "Morocco",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 55,
"probDraw": 28,
"probWinB": 17,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Brazil's attacking depth slightly edges Morocco's highly organized defensive block in a tightly contested match."
},
{
"group": "C",
"teamA": "Haiti",
"teamB": "Scotland",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 12,
"probDraw": 23,
"probWinB": 65,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Scotland's physical midfield and superior tactical discipline overwhelm Haiti's defense."
},
{
"group": "C",
"teamA": "Scotland",
"teamB": "Morocco",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 22,
"probDraw": 30,
"probWinB": 48,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Morocco's technical superiority and experience in major tournaments allow them to break down a resilient Scottish side."
},
{
"group": "C",
"teamA": "Brazil",
"teamB": "Haiti",
"scoreA": 4,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 88,
"probDraw": 9,
"probWinB": 3,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "A massive disparity in individual quality and Elo ratings leads to a comfortable and dominant victory for Brazil."
},
{
"group": "C",
"teamA": "Scotland",
"teamB": "Brazil",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 15,
"probDraw": 20,
"probWinB": 65,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Brazil's superior talent dictates possession and creates too many chances for Scotland to withstand over 90 minutes."
},
{
"group": "C",
"teamA": "Morocco",
"teamB": "Haiti",
"scoreA": 3,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 75,
"probDraw": 18,
"probWinB": 7,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Morocco controls the tempo completely against a significantly lower-ranked Haitian team lacking top-tier international experience."
},
{
"group": "D",
"teamA": "USA",
"teamB": "Paraguay",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 35,
"probDraw": 35,
"probWinB": 30,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "USA's home advantage is neutralized by Paraguay's defensive solidity and superior Elo rating."
},
{
"group": "D",
"teamA": "Australia",
"teamB": "Turkey",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 20,
"probDraw": 25,
"probWinB": 55,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Turkey's technical midfield and attacking depth outmatch Australia's organized but limited squad."
},
{
"group": "D",
"teamA": "USA",
"teamB": "Australia",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 45,
"probDraw": 30,
"probWinB": 25,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Home crowd momentum and athletic edge give the USA a slight advantage in a crucial group stage fixture."
},
{
"group": "D",
"teamA": "Turkey",
"teamB": "Paraguay",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 40,
"probDraw": 35,
"probWinB": 25,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Paraguay's resilient low block will frustrate Turkey's technical attackers, leading to a hard-fought stalemate."
},
{
"group": "D",
"teamA": "Turkey",
"teamB": "USA",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 40,
"probDraw": 30,
"probWinB": 30,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Turkey's superior underlying quality (Elo 1911) clashes with the USA's desperate home-field push, resulting in a high-scoring draw."
},
{
"group": "D",
"teamA": "Paraguay",
"teamB": "Australia",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 45,
"probDraw": 30,
"probWinB": 25,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Paraguay's tactical discipline and CONMEBOL qualifying pedigree give them a narrow edge in a tight, low-scoring affair."
},
{
"group": "E",
"teamA": "Germany",
"teamB": "Curaçao",
"scoreA": 4,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 90,
"probDraw": 8,
"probWinB": 2,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Germany's overwhelming tactical and individual superiority will easily dismantle a massively outgunned Curaçao side."
},
{
"group": "E",
"teamA": "Ivory Coast",
"teamB": "Ecuador",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 25,
"probDraw": 30,
"probWinB": 45,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Ecuador's high-intensity pressing and superior Elo rating give them a slight but decisive edge over a talented Ivory Coast."
},
{
"group": "E",
"teamA": "Germany",
"teamB": "Ivory Coast",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 70,
"probDraw": 20,
"probWinB": 10,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Germany's structured midfield control and possession game will stifle Ivory Coast's attempts at rapid counter-attacks."
},
{
"group": "E",
"teamA": "Ecuador",
"teamB": "Curaçao",
"scoreA": 3,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 85,
"probDraw": 11,
"probWinB": 4,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Ecuador's pace and physicality outmatch Curaçao in every department, making a comfortable victory highly probable."
},
{
"group": "E",
"teamA": "Curaçao",
"teamB": "Ivory Coast",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 3,
"probWinA": 5,
"probDraw": 15,
"probWinB": 80,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Ivory Coast's attacking depth and athleticism will overwhelm a Curaçao defense struggling against tier-one opposition."
},
{
"group": "E",
"teamA": "Ecuador",
"teamB": "Germany",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 30,
"probDraw": 40,
"probWinB": 30,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "A fiercely contested tactical battle between two highly rated teams that is very likely to end in a pragmatic draw."
},
{
"group": "F",
"teamA": "Netherlands",
"teamB": "Japan",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 55,
"probDraw": 25,
"probWinB": 20,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Netherlands has superior individual quality, but Japan's intense pressing and tactical discipline makes it a tight contest."
},
{
"group": "F",
"teamA": "Sweden",
"teamB": "Tunisia",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 50,
"probDraw": 30,
"probWinB": 20,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Sweden's physical advantage and set-piece threat edge out a defensively organized Tunisian side in a low-scoring affair."
},
{
"group": "F",
"teamA": "Netherlands",
"teamB": "Sweden",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 65,
"probDraw": 20,
"probWinB": 15,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "The Dutch midfield control and attacking depth will likely overwhelm Sweden's deeper defensive block over 90 minutes."
},
{
"group": "F",
"teamA": "Tunisia",
"teamB": "Japan",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 15,
"probDraw": 25,
"probWinB": 60,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Japan's technical superiority and quick transitions should break down Tunisia's defense relatively comfortably."
},
{
"group": "F",
"teamA": "Japan",
"teamB": "Sweden",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 55,
"probDraw": 25,
"probWinB": 20,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "A clash of styles where Japan's mobility and intricate passing should ultimately unlock Sweden's physical defense."
},
{
"group": "F",
"teamA": "Tunisia",
"teamB": "Netherlands",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 3,
"probWinA": 10,
"probDraw": 20,
"probWinB": 70,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "A clear mismatch in squad depth and attacking firepower strongly favors a comfortable Dutch victory."
},
{
"group": "G",
"teamA": "Belgium",
"teamB": "Egypt",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 70,
"probDraw": 20,
"probWinB": 10,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Belgium's significant Elo advantage and elite playmaking quality will dictate possession and break down Egypt's structured defense."
},
{
"group": "G",
"teamA": "Iran",
"teamB": "New Zealand",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 65,
"probDraw": 25,
"probWinB": 10,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Iran's tournament experience, tactical discipline, and superior attacking physicality will overpower a weaker New Zealand side."
},
{
"group": "G",
"teamA": "Belgium",
"teamB": "Iran",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 60,
"probDraw": 25,
"probWinB": 15,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Iran's notoriously compact low block will frustrate the Belgians, but individual brilliance should eventually secure a narrow victory."
},
{
"group": "G",
"teamA": "New Zealand",
"teamB": "Egypt",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 15,
"probDraw": 30,
"probWinB": 55,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Egypt's pace in transition provides a critical edge over a resilient but technically outmatched New Zealand squad."
},
{
"group": "G",
"teamA": "Egypt",
"teamB": "Iran",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 30,
"probDraw": 40,
"probWinB": 30,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "A cautious, tightly contested match between evenly matched defensive setups likely ends in a stalemate that suits both qualification hopes."
},
{
"group": "G",
"teamA": "New Zealand",
"teamB": "Belgium",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 3,
"probWinA": 5,
"probDraw": 15,
"probWinB": 80,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "A massive gulf in class across all areas of the pitch guarantees a comfortable and dominant win for Belgium, even with squad rotation."
},
{
"group": "H",
"teamA": "Spain",
"teamB": "Cape Verde",
"scoreA": 3,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 85,
"probDraw": 10,
"probWinB": 5,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Spain's overwhelming possession and technical superiority will comfortably break down Cape Verde's defensive structure."
},
{
"group": "H",
"teamA": "Saudi Arabia",
"teamB": "Uruguay",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 10,
"probDraw": 15,
"probWinB": 75,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Uruguay's high-intensity pressing under Marcelo Bielsa will force critical errors from the Saudi backline."
},
{
"group": "H",
"teamA": "Spain",
"teamB": "Saudi Arabia",
"scoreA": 3,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 80,
"probDraw": 15,
"probWinB": 5,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Spain's midfield control will dictate the tempo, suffocating Saudi Arabia's attempts to build from the back."
},
{
"group": "H",
"teamA": "Uruguay",
"teamB": "Cape Verde",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 75,
"probDraw": 18,
"probWinB": 7,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Uruguay's transitional speed and attacking depth will prove too much for Cape Verde to contain over a full 90 minutes."
},
{
"group": "H",
"teamA": "Cape Verde",
"teamB": "Saudi Arabia",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 35,
"probDraw": 35,
"probWinB": 30,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "An evenly matched fixture between two similarly rated sides where Cape Verde's defensive solidity is likely to cancel out Saudi Arabia's patient build-up play."
},
{
"group": "H",
"teamA": "Uruguay",
"teamB": "Spain",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 25,
"probDraw": 35,
"probWinB": 40,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "A tight tactical battle between Spain's possession control and Uruguay's aggressive pressing system that frequently disrupts rhythm, making a draw highly probable."
},
{
"group": "I",
"teamA": "France",
"teamB": "Senegal",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 70,
"probDraw": 20,
"probWinB": 10,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "France's overwhelming squad depth and quality across the pitch should be too much for Senegal to contain over 90 minutes."
},
{
"group": "I",
"teamA": "Iraq",
"teamB": "Norway",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 3,
"probWinA": 10,
"probDraw": 15,
"probWinB": 75,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Norway's attacking firepower, led by Erling Haaland, gives them a distinct advantage over the Iraqi defense."
},
{
"group": "I",
"teamA": "France",
"teamB": "Iraq",
"scoreA": 4,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 85,
"probDraw": 10,
"probWinB": 5,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "France possesses vastly superior individual talent and tactical structure compared to a much lower-ranked Iraqi side."
},
{
"group": "I",
"teamA": "Norway",
"teamB": "Senegal",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 35,
"probDraw": 35,
"probWinB": 30,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "A closely contested battle where Norway's star attackers face Senegal's solid physical defense, likely resulting in a stalemate."
},
{
"group": "I",
"teamA": "Norway",
"teamB": "France",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 20,
"probDraw": 25,
"probWinB": 55,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "While Norway poses a threat through their elite attackers, France's balanced and experienced squad should secure the victory."
},
{
"group": "I",
"teamA": "Senegal",
"teamB": "Iraq",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 65,
"probDraw": 25,
"probWinB": 10,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Senegal's physical superiority and greater experience in major tournaments should lead to a comfortable win against Iraq."
},
{
"group": "J",
"teamA": "Argentina",
"teamB": "Algeria",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 75,
"probDraw": 18,
"probWinB": 7,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Argentina's overwhelming squad depth and tournament experience comfortably outmatch Algeria's defensive capabilities."
},
{
"group": "J",
"teamA": "Austria",
"teamB": "Jordan",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 68,
"probDraw": 22,
"probWinB": 10,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Austria's high-intensity pressing system will likely overwhelm Jordan's structure over 90 minutes."
},
{
"group": "J",
"teamA": "Argentina",
"teamB": "Austria",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 55,
"probDraw": 28,
"probWinB": 17,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Austria's tactical discipline will pose a stern test, but Argentina's individual brilliance in the final third gives them the edge."
},
{
"group": "J",
"teamA": "Jordan",
"teamB": "Algeria",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 20,
"probDraw": 28,
"probWinB": 52,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Algeria possesses superior attacking talent that should eventually break down a resilient Jordanian block."
},
{
"group": "J",
"teamA": "Algeria",
"teamB": "Austria",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 25,
"probDraw": 29,
"probWinB": 46,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Austria's physical midfield and cohesive tactical approach are expected to narrowly overpower Algeria in a closely contested match."
},
{
"group": "J",
"teamA": "Jordan",
"teamB": "Argentina",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 3,
"probWinA": 5,
"probDraw": 10,
"probWinB": 85,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "A severe mismatch in Elo and individual quality points to a comfortable victory for the South American champions."
},
{
"group": "K",
"teamA": "Portugal",
"teamB": "DR Congo",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 75,
"probDraw": 18,
"probWinB": 7,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Portugal's overwhelming attacking depth and massive Elo advantage make them clear favorites against DR Congo."
},
{
"group": "K",
"teamA": "Uzbekistan",
"teamB": "Colombia",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 15,
"probDraw": 25,
"probWinB": 60,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Colombia's superior tactical organization and tournament experience easily outclass Uzbekistan's squad."
},
{
"group": "K",
"teamA": "Portugal",
"teamB": "Uzbekistan",
"scoreA": 3,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 80,
"probDraw": 15,
"probWinB": 5,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Uzbekistan will struggle significantly to contain Portugal's fluid attacking transitions and elite individual quality."
},
{
"group": "K",
"teamA": "Colombia",
"teamB": "DR Congo",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 65,
"probDraw": 22,
"probWinB": 13,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Colombia's technical superiority in midfield should prevail, though DR Congo's physicality could pose a threat."
},
{
"group": "K",
"teamA": "Colombia",
"teamB": "Portugal",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 28,
"probDraw": 32,
"probWinB": 40,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Two evenly matched top-tier teams with nearly identical Elo ratings are highly likely to play out a tactical draw."
},
{
"group": "K",
"teamA": "DR Congo",
"teamB": "Uzbekistan",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 30,
"probDraw": 35,
"probWinB": 35,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Both teams are closely matched in strength and quality, likely cancelling each other out in a tight, low-scoring game."
},
{
"group": "L",
"teamA": "England",
"teamB": "Croatia",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 55,
"probDraw": 28,
"probWinB": 17,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "England's attacking depth and superior Elo rating give them a slight edge, though Croatia's experienced midfield ensures a tight contest."
},
{
"group": "L",
"teamA": "Ghana",
"teamB": "Panama",
"scoreA": 1,
"scoreB": 1,
"probWinA": 30,
"probDraw": 35,
"probWinB": 35,
"confidence": "low",
"reasoning": "Panama has stronger recent form and a higher Elo rating, but Ghana's individual physical qualities should be enough to secure a draw."
},
{
"group": "L",
"teamA": "England",
"teamB": "Ghana",
"scoreA": 3,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 78,
"probDraw": 15,
"probWinB": 7,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "A significant mismatch in both Elo and tactical organization heavily favors a comfortable and dominant England victory."
},
{
"group": "L",
"teamA": "Panama",
"teamB": "Croatia",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 15,
"probDraw": 25,
"probWinB": 60,
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Croatia's technical superiority, tactical discipline, and tournament pedigree should comfortably overcome Panama's defensive lines."
},
{
"group": "L",
"teamA": "Panama",
"teamB": "England",
"scoreA": 0,
"scoreB": 2,
"probWinA": 10,
"probDraw": 20,
"probWinB": 70,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "England's overall quality across the pitch will be too much for Panama to handle, resulting in a routine win."
},
{
"group": "L",
"teamA": "Croatia",
"teamB": "Ghana",
"scoreA": 2,
"scoreB": 0,
"probWinA": 65,
"probDraw": 22,
"probWinB": 13,
"confidence": "high",
"reasoning": "Croatia's ability to control possession and dictate tempo will likely exploit Ghana's recent defensive vulnerabilities and inconsistencies."
}
]
}