Knockout II — ground-truth
Stage 2 of the experiment. The group stage is over, so every model now starts from the real FIFA results and the official Round-of-32 draw — identical for all — and predicts only the knockout outcomes. Unlike Stage 1 (each model chained on its own predicted groups), this shared starting point makes the brackets directly comparable, tie by tie.
Group-stage retrospective
How each model's group-stage predictions (Stage 1) held up against the real finished group stage — group winners called and real qualifiers it had advancing. The real outcomes (FIFA) are the same starting point every Stage-2 bracket below is built on.
| Run | Group winners | Qualifiers |
|---|---|---|
| OpenAI · web | 11/12 | 27/32 |
| Gemini · web | 11/12 | 26/32 |
| OpenAI · baseline | 11/12 | 26/32 |
| Gemini · baseline | 11/12 | 26/32 |
| Claude · enriched | 10/12 | 26/32 |
| OpenAI · enriched | 10/12 | 26/32 |
| Gemini · enriched | 10/12 | 26/32 |
| Claude · web | 9/12 | 26/32 |
| Claude · baseline | 9/12 | 26/32 |
Gemini 3.1 Pro (Antigravity CLI, High) · Jun 28, 2026, 22:09 UTC · built on the real FIFA group stage + official Round-of-32 draw
Champion
Argentina
Golden Boot
Kylian Mbappé
France · 7 goals
Third place
France
France 3–1 Spain
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Round of 32
South Africa1
Canada2
Germany3
Paraguay0
Netherlands2
Morocco1
a.e.t.
Brazil3
Japan1
France2
Sweden0
Côte d'Ivoire1
Norway2
Mexico2
Ecuador0
England2
Congo DR0
USA2
Bosnia and Herzegovina1
Belgium1
Senegal0
Portugal1
Croatia1
1–1 (5–4 p)
Spain3
Austria1
Switzerland2
Algeria0
Argentina4
Cabo Verde0
Colombia2
Ghana1
Australia0
Egypt1
Round of 16
Canada1
Germany3
Netherlands1
Brazil2
France3
Norway1
Mexico1
England2
a.e.t.
USA1
Belgium2
Portugal0
Spain1
Switzerland0
Argentina2
Colombia2
Egypt0
Quarter-finals
Germany1
Brazil2
France2
England1
Belgium1
Spain3
Argentina2
Colombia1
Semi-finals
Brazil2
France2
2–2 (5–4 p)
Spain1
Argentina2
Final
Brazil1
Argentina2
a.e.t.