Knockout II — ground-truth
Stage 2 of the experiment. The group stage is over, so every model now starts from the real FIFA results and the official Round-of-32 draw — identical for all — and predicts only the knockout outcomes. Unlike Stage 1 (each model chained on its own predicted groups), this shared starting point makes the brackets directly comparable, tie by tie.
Group-stage retrospective
How each model's group-stage predictions (Stage 1) held up against the real finished group stage — group winners called and real qualifiers it had advancing. The real outcomes (FIFA) are the same starting point every Stage-2 bracket below is built on.
| Run | Group winners | Qualifiers |
|---|---|---|
| OpenAI · web | 11/12 | 27/32 |
| Gemini · web | 11/12 | 26/32 |
| OpenAI · baseline | 11/12 | 26/32 |
| Gemini · baseline | 11/12 | 26/32 |
| Claude · enriched | 10/12 | 26/32 |
| OpenAI · enriched | 10/12 | 26/32 |
| Gemini · enriched | 10/12 | 26/32 |
| Claude · web | 9/12 | 26/32 |
| Claude · baseline | 9/12 | 26/32 |
Claude Opus 4.8 (Anthropic API) · Jun 28, 2026, 20:50 UTC · built on the real FIFA group stage + official Round-of-32 draw
Champion
France
Golden Boot
Kylian Mbappé
France · 8 goals
Third place
Brazil
Brazil 2–2 (5–4 p) Spain
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Round of 32
South Africa1
Canada2
Germany2
Paraguay0
Netherlands2
Morocco1
a.e.t.
Brazil2
Japan1
France3
Sweden1
Côte d'Ivoire1
Norway2
Mexico2
Ecuador1
England3
Congo DR0
USA2
Bosnia and Herzegovina1
Belgium1
Senegal1
1–1 (4–3 p)
Portugal2
Croatia1
a.e.t.
Spain3
Austria0
Switzerland1
Algeria1
1–1 (5–4 p)
Argentina3
Cabo Verde0
Colombia2
Ghana1
Australia1
Egypt2
Round of 16
Canada0
Germany2
Netherlands1
Brazil2
a.e.t.
France2
Norway1
Mexico1
England2
USA1
Belgium2
Portugal1
Spain2
Switzerland0
Argentina2
Colombia2
Egypt1
Quarter-finals
Germany1
Brazil2
France2
England1
a.e.t.
Belgium0
Spain2
Argentina2
Colombia1
Semi-finals
Brazil1
France2
Spain1
Argentina1
1–1 (3–4 p)
Final
France2
Argentina1
a.e.t.