Which AI predicts the 2026 World Cup better?

Claude, Gemini and OpenAI each predict all 72 group-stage matches. As the real results come in, every correct call scores points. The Brier score measures how well each model's probabilities are calibrated — lower is better.

Group stage progress72/72 matches
WebBaselineEnriched

API, no tools — internal model knowledge only.

Claude

leading
136
points · 72 predictions submitted
Exact scores
11
Correct results
43
Points accuracy
37.8%
Result accuracy
59.7%
Brier (calibration ↓)
0.519
Scored matches
72

Gemini

125
points · 72 predictions submitted
Exact scores
7
Correct results
43
Points accuracy
34.7%
Result accuracy
59.7%
Brier (calibration ↓)
0.511
Scored matches
72

OpenAI

134
points · 72 predictions submitted
Exact scores
12
Correct results
43
Points accuracy
37.2%
Result accuracy
59.7%
Brier (calibration ↓)
0.520
Scored matches
72

How scoring works

  • +5Exact score
  • +3Correct result + one exact side
  • +2Correct result only (W/D/L)
  • +0Wrong result

Experiment design

See the prompts →
  • Web— Chat + live web access — free sourcing.
  • Baseline— API, no tools — internal model knowledge only.
  • Enriched— API, no tools + standardized context block (same data for every model).